Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: Barakaldo vs Pontevedra

Team pages: Barakaldo · Pontevedra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Barakaldo1.28

Pontevedra0.86

1X2

46% 30% 24%

Barakaldo Draw Pontevedra

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Barakaldo 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWLDDLWD

Pontevedra 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLDDLLWW

Head-to-head

Barakaldo 0–2 Pontevedra (2 last)

Pontevedra2-0Barakaldo
Barakaldo0-1Pontevedra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barakaldo 1456 · Pontevedra 1493

	Barakaldo	Draw	Pontevedra
Our model	45%	31%	24%
Market	46%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pontevedra: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barakaldo	Pontevedra
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	5.2 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.10

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:44 +12’	1.95	3.10	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barakaldo 0–0–2 Pontevedra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Pontevedra	2-0 HT 1-0	Barakaldo
21/12/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Barakaldo	0-1 HT 0-1	Pontevedra

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	9	7	1	1	16	8	22
2	UD Logrones	9	6	2	1	20	12	20
3	Racing Ferrol	9	5	1	3	9	7	16
4	Cacereno	9	4	3	2	8	5	15
5	Mirandes	9	4	2	3	12	10	14
6	Pontevedra	9	4	2	3	12	11	14
7	CD Extremadura	9	4	1	4	16	10	13
8	Real Unión	9	3	4	2	19	14	13
9	Merida	9	4	1	4	15	12	13
10	Ponferradina	9	3	4	2	6	6	13
11	Athletic Bilbao B	9	3	3	3	14	12	12
12	Cultural Leonesa	9	3	3	3	10	9	12
12	Zamora CF	9	3	3	3	10	9	12
14	Real Aviles CF	9	3	2	4	15	13	11
15	Barakaldo	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
16	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	9	3	1	5	12	15	10
17	CD Coria	9	2	3	4	12	16	9
18	Deportivo Fabril	9	2	2	5	8	16	8
19	UD Ourense	9	1	2	6	3	15	5
20	Arenas Club de Getxo	9	1	2	6	7	22	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barakaldo	Pontevedra
Ponferradina	0-0 D	1-1 D
Arenas Club de Getxo	1-1 D	4-1 W
Real Aviles CF	3-3 D	1-0 W
Racing Ferrol	0-1 L	0-2 L
Cultural Leonesa	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pontevedra (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barakaldo

DDLWLDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/10	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-0	14	9	W
10/10	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
03/10	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
27/09	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	3-3	6	6	D
19/09	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
11/09	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
05/09	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-4	7	6	L
30/08	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
23/05	Celta Fortuna Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	13	3	D

Pontevedra

DWWLDDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
18/10	Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	0	8	W
11/10	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
03/10	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
27/09	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
18/09	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
12/09	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
05/09	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	4-1	3	4	W
28/08	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	4	9	W
23/05	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-2	6	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barakaldo vs Pontevedra?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barakaldo win (46%). Probabilities: Barakaldo 46%, draw 30%, Pontevedra 24%.

How many goals are expected in Barakaldo vs Pontevedra?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Barakaldo 1.28 · Pontevedra 0.86), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Barakaldo vs Pontevedra?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.