Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 08/11, 18:15
Prediction: Merida vs Athletic Bilbao B
Team pages: Merida · Athletic Bilbao B
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Merida1.49
Athletic Bilbao B1.4
1X2
Merida
Draw
Athletic Bilbao B
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Merida
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Athletic Bilbao B
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Merida
0–1–1
Athletic Bilbao B
(2 last)
- Athletic Bilbao B1-1Merida
- Merida2-3Athletic Bilbao B
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Merida 1490 · Athletic Bilbao B 1522
| Merida | Draw | Athletic Bilbao B | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 27% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Merida | Athletic Bilbao B | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5 | 2.8 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.6 | 4.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Merida 0–1–1 Athletic Bilbao B
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 | Athletic Bilbao B | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Merida |
| 19/12/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 | Merida | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Athletic Bilbao B |
Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 28 |
| 2 | UD Logrones | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Pontevedra | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Real Aviles CF | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 15 | 17 |
| 5 | Mirandes | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 17 |
| 6 | Racing Ferrol | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 17 |
| 7 | CD Extremadura | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 16 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao B | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 15 |
| 9 | Cacereno | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 15 |
| 10 | Barakaldo | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 14 |
| 11 | Ponferradina | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
| 12 | Merida | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 13 |
| 13 | Real Unión | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 13 |
| 14 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 13 |
| 15 | Cultural Leonesa | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| 16 | Zamora CF | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| 17 | Deportivo Fabril | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 11 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 9 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 8 |
| 20 | Arenas Club de Getxo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 8 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Merida | Athletic Bilbao B |
|---|---|---|
| CD Coria | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Arenas Club de Getxo | 4-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Pontevedra | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Cacereno | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Deportivo Fabril | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Merida (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Merida
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/10 | CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 18/10 | Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 11/10 | Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 04/10 | Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 27/09 | UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-2 | 3-5 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
2-2 | 3-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 06/09 | Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 29/08 | Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
Athletic Bilbao B
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 24/10 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 18/10 | CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 11/10 | Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/10 | CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 26/09 | Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Merida vs Athletic Bilbao B?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Merida win (38%). Probabilities: Merida 38%, draw 28%, Athletic Bilbao B 34%.
How many goals are expected in Merida vs Athletic Bilbao B?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Merida 1.49 · Athletic Bilbao B 1.4), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Merida vs Athletic Bilbao B?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.