Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 07/11, 16:30

Prediction: Barakaldo vs Real Unión

Team pages: Barakaldo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Barakaldo1.54

Real Unión1.02

1X2

48% 28% 24%

Barakaldo Draw Real Unión

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Barakaldo 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLDDLWDD

Real Unión 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLDDDWL

Head-to-head

Barakaldo 2–2–2 Real Unión (6 last)

Barakaldo0-2Real Unión
Barakaldo3-3Real Unión
Barakaldo0-2Real Unión
Real Unión1-1Barakaldo
Real Unión0-1Barakaldo
Barakaldo3-0Real Unión

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barakaldo 1472 · Real Unión 1514

	Barakaldo	Draw	Real Unión
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Unión (rating 1472 vs 1514).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barakaldo	Real Unión
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.4	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.4	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:12 +6’	1.85	3.30	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Barakaldo 2–2–2 Real Unión

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/08/26 Europe Friendlies	Barakaldo	0-2 HT 0-1	Real Unión
16/08/25 Europe Friendlies	Barakaldo	3-3 HT 2-1	Real Unión
02/02/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Barakaldo	0-2 HT 0-0	Real Unión
13/10/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Real Unión	1-1 HT 1-0	Barakaldo
14/08/24 Europe Friendlies	Real Unión	0-1 HT 0-1	Barakaldo
13/02/21 Spain Segunda B Group 2	Barakaldo	3-0 HT 1-0	Real Unión

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	10	8	1	1	18	9	25
2	UD Logrones	10	6	2	2	20	13	20
3	Mirandes	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
4	Racing Ferrol	10	5	2	3	9	7	17
5	CD Extremadura	10	5	1	4	19	10	16
6	Athletic Bilbao B	10	4	3	3	17	13	15
7	Pontevedra	10	4	3	3	12	11	15
8	Cacereno	10	4	3	3	9	8	15
9	Real Aviles CF	10	4	2	4	18	13	14
10	Ponferradina	10	3	5	2	6	6	14
11	Real Unión	10	3	4	3	19	17	13
12	Merida	10	4	1	5	16	14	13
13	Cultural Leonesa	10	3	3	4	10	10	12
14	Zamora CF	10	3	3	4	11	12	12
15	Barakaldo	10	2	5	3	8	10	11
16	Deportivo Fabril	10	3	2	5	11	17	11
17	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	10	3	1	6	12	18	10
18	CD Coria	10	2	3	5	12	17	9
19	UD Ourense	10	2	2	6	4	15	8
20	Arenas Club de Getxo	10	2	2	6	8	22	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barakaldo	Real Unión
Mirandes	2-0 W	2-2 D
UD Ourense	0-1 L	1-1 D
Real Aviles CF	3-3 D	0-3 L
Racing Ferrol	0-1 L	2-3 L
CD Extremadura	1-0 W	2-2 D
CD Coria	1-4 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Barakaldo (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barakaldo

DLWLDDLWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
24/10	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/10	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-0	14	9	W
10/10	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
03/10	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
27/09	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	3-3	6	6	D
19/09	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
11/09	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
05/09	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-4	7	6	L
30/08	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	7	3	D

Real Unión

WWLDLDDDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-3	3	8	L
23/10	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	4-1	6	4	W
17/10	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	2-2	2	5	D
11/10	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
03/10	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
26/09	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
19/09	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-2	7	6	D
13/09	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-3	2	2	L
05/09	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	4-2	3	5	W
30/08	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	4-1	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barakaldo vs Real Unión?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barakaldo win (48%). Probabilities: Barakaldo 48%, draw 28%, Real Unión 24%.

How many goals are expected in Barakaldo vs Real Unión?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Barakaldo 1.54 · Real Unión 1.02), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Barakaldo vs Real Unión?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.