Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 06/11, 19:00

Prediction: Cacereno vs Lugo

Team pages: Cacereno · Lugo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Cacereno1.18

Lugo1.08

1X2

37% 30% 33%

Cacereno Draw Lugo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Cacereno 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLDLWL

Lugo 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Cacereno 0–2 Lugo (2 last)

Cacereno1-2Lugo
Lugo1-0Cacereno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cacereno 1489 · Lugo 1590

	Cacereno	Draw	Lugo
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lugo (rating 1489 vs 1590).
H2H favours Lugo: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cacereno	Lugo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.8	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.4	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +7’	2.35	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cacereno 0–0–2 Lugo

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Cacereno	1-2 HT 0-1	Lugo
04/10/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Lugo	1-0 HT 0-0	Cacereno

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	10	8	1	1	18	9	25
2	UD Logrones	10	6	2	2	20	13	20
3	Mirandes	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
4	Racing Ferrol	10	5	2	3	9	7	17
5	CD Extremadura	10	5	1	4	19	10	16
6	Athletic Bilbao B	10	4	3	3	17	13	15
7	Pontevedra	10	4	3	3	12	11	15
8	Cacereno	10	4	3	3	9	8	15
9	Real Aviles CF	10	4	2	4	18	13	14
10	Ponferradina	10	3	5	2	6	6	14
11	Real Unión	10	3	4	3	19	17	13
12	Merida	10	4	1	5	16	14	13
13	Cultural Leonesa	10	3	3	4	10	10	12
14	Zamora CF	10	3	3	4	11	12	12
15	Barakaldo	10	2	5	3	8	10	11
16	Deportivo Fabril	10	3	2	5	11	17	11
17	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	10	3	1	6	12	18	10
18	CD Coria	10	2	3	5	12	17	9
19	UD Ourense	10	2	2	6	4	15	8
20	Arenas Club de Getxo	10	2	2	6	8	22	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cacereno	Lugo
Zamora CF	1-0 W	2-1 W
Unionistas de Salamanca CF	1-1 D	3-1 W
Merida	0-2 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Fabril	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Lugo (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cacereno

WDWWDLDLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-3	3	6	L
24/10	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
18/10	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	8	8	L
10/10	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
04/10	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-2	12	1	L
27/09	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
20/09	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	3-0	3	6	W
13/09	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
06/09	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
28/08	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	5	3	W

Lugo

WDWWWWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
23/10	Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-4	5	4	L
17/10	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
12/10	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	3-1	5	7	W
02/10	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-1	6	0	W
26/09	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
20/09	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
13/09	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
04/09	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
30/08	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cacereno vs Lugo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cacereno win (37%). Probabilities: Cacereno 37%, draw 30%, Lugo 33%.

How many goals are expected in Cacereno vs Lugo?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Cacereno 1.18 · Lugo 1.08), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cacereno vs Lugo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.