Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 06/11, 21:15

Prediction: Real Aviles CF vs CD Extremadura

Team pages: Real Aviles CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Real Aviles CF1.54

CD Extremadura1.43

1X2

39% 27% 34%

Real Aviles CF Draw CD Extremadura

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Aviles CF 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDDLWWLW

CD Extremadura 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWWDWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Aviles CF 1517 · CD Extremadura 1533

	Real Aviles CF	Draw	CD Extremadura
Our model	39%	27%	34%
Market	39%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Aviles CF	CD Extremadura
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.30

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +14’	2.30	3.30	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	10	8	1	1	18	9	25
2	UD Logrones	10	6	2	2	20	13	20
3	Mirandes	10	5	2	3	13	10	17
4	Racing Ferrol	10	5	2	3	9	7	17
5	CD Extremadura	10	5	1	4	19	10	16
6	Athletic Bilbao B	10	4	3	3	17	13	15
7	Pontevedra	10	4	3	3	12	11	15
8	Cacereno	10	4	3	3	9	8	15
9	Real Aviles CF	10	4	2	4	18	13	14
10	Ponferradina	10	3	5	2	6	6	14
11	Real Unión	10	3	4	3	19	17	13
12	Merida	10	4	1	5	16	14	13
13	Cultural Leonesa	10	3	3	4	10	10	12
14	Zamora CF	10	3	3	4	11	12	12
15	Barakaldo	10	2	5	3	8	10	11
16	Deportivo Fabril	10	3	2	5	11	17	11
17	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	10	3	1	6	12	18	10
18	CD Coria	10	2	3	5	12	17	9
19	UD Ourense	10	2	2	6	4	15	8
20	Arenas Club de Getxo	10	2	2	6	8	22	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Aviles CF	CD Extremadura
Real Unión	3-0 W	2-2 D
UD Logrones	1-3 L	1-2 L
Barakaldo	3-3 D	0-1 L
CD Coria	1-1 D	4-2 W
Unionistas de Salamanca CF	3-1 W	3-0 W
Athletic Bilbao B	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Extremadura (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Aviles CF

LLWDDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	7	8	W
24/10	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-3	2	5	L
18/10	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	9	4	W
11/10	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-0	1	8	W
02/10	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	3	0	L
27/09	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	3-3	4	6	D
19/09	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
12/09	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
06/09	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
28/08	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	4	9	L

CD Extremadura

LWLLLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	3	7	W
24/10	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	3-0	5-0	8	2	W
17/10	Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	2-2	7	5	D
10/10	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	4-2	–	–	W
04/10	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	3-1	2	7	W
26/09	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
20/09	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
11/09	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
06/09	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
31/08	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-2	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Aviles CF vs CD Extremadura?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Aviles CF win (39%). Probabilities: Real Aviles CF 39%, draw 27%, CD Extremadura 34%.

How many goals are expected in Real Aviles CF vs CD Extremadura?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Real Aviles CF 1.54 · CD Extremadura 1.43), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Aviles CF vs CD Extremadura?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.