Prediction: Blumenau EC vs Hercilio Luz
| Blumenau EC | Draw | Hercilio Luz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | 44% | 27% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hercilio Luz (rating 1538 vs 1587).
- H2H favours Hercilio Luz: 2-0-1.
- High corners: 14.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 12.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Blumenau EC | Hercilio Luz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1 | 2.4 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 33/56/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 8.2 | 2.9 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.5 | 6.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Blumenau EC 1–0–2 Hercilio Luz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/26 Brazil Catarinense 2 | Hercilio Luz | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Blumenau EC |
| 27/10/18 Brazil Matches | Blumenau EC | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Hercilio Luz |
| 16/09/18 Brazil Matches | Hercilio Luz | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Blumenau EC |
Standings · Brazil Catarinense 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hercilio Luz | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | CA Metropolitano | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 26 |
| 3 | Blumenau EC | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | Caravaggio SC | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 24 |
| 5 | Tubarao | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 23 |
| 6 | Guarani de Palhoca | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 21 | 15 |
| 7 | Fluminense SC | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 14 |
| 8 | Nacao | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 14 |
| 9 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 11 |
| 10 | SC Jaragua | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Blumenau EC | Hercilio Luz |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus Jaragua Do Sul | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Fluminense SC | 1-1 D | 4-2 W |
| Caravaggio SC | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Tubarao | 3-2 W | 2-0 W |
| SC Jaragua | 6-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Nacao | 6-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 5 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Hercilio Luz (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Blumenau EC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 04/07 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 27/06 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 9 | D |
| 24/06 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 17/06 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/06 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
4-0 | 6-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
3-0 | 6-0 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
Hercilio Luz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 28/06 | Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 14/06 | SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 28/05 | Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2 |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2 |
2-0 | 6-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Blumenau EC vs Hercilio Luz?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Blumenau EC win (44%). Probabilities: Blumenau EC 44%, draw 28%, Hercilio Luz 29%.
How many goals are expected in Blumenau EC vs Hercilio Luz?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Blumenau EC 1.5 · Hercilio Luz 1.18), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Blumenau EC vs Hercilio Luz?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.