Football · Brazil Catarinense 2 · 22/07, 20:00

Prediction: Blumenau EC vs Nacao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Blumenau EC2.61

Nacao0.77

1X2

77% 15% 9%

Blumenau EC Draw Nacao

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Blumenau EC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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Nacao 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDLLWD

Head-to-head

Blumenau EC 3–1–1 Nacao (5 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blumenau EC 1545 · Nacao 1444

	Blumenau EC	Draw	Nacao
Our model	76%	16%	8%
Market	77%	14%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blumenau EC (rating 1545 vs 1444).
H2H favours Blumenau EC: 3-1-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blumenau EC	Nacao
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 7.7	2.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.7	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.17

X6.50

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:41 +24’	1.17	6.50	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Blumenau EC 3–1–1 Nacao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/06/26 Brazil Catarinense 2	Nacao	0-6 HT 0-3	Blumenau EC
28/09/25 Brazil Copa Santa Catarina	Blumenau EC	5-1 HT 2-1	Nacao
24/09/25 Brazil Copa Santa Catarina	Nacao	0-2 HT 0-1	Blumenau EC
12/07/25 Brazil Catarinense 2	Blumenau EC	2-2 HT 0-1	Nacao
12/06/22 Brazil Catarinense 2	Nacao	3-0 HT 2-0	Blumenau EC

Standings · Brazil Catarinense 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hercilio Luz	16	12	2	2	33	9	38
2	CA Metropolitano	16	10	2	4	31	18	32
3	Caravaggio SC	16	9	4	3	44	19	31
4	Blumenau EC	16	8	4	4	32	13	28
5	Tubarao	16	6	5	5	22	17	23
6	Fluminense SC	16	5	3	8	14	21	18
7	Nacao	16	4	6	6	16	24	18
8	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul	16	5	2	9	16	21	17
9	Guarani de Palhoca	16	4	5	7	15	24	17
10	SC Jaragua	16	0	1	15	6	63	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Blumenau EC	Nacao
Guarani de Palhoca	1-1 D	0-0 D
CA Metropolitano	4-1 W	0-0 D
Hercilio Luz	0-2 L	1-2 L
Juventus Jaragua Do Sul	1-1 D	1-0 W
Fluminense SC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Caravaggio SC	1-2 L	2-2 D
Tubarao	3-2 W	0-1 L
SC Jaragua	6-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Blumenau EC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Blumenau EC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/07	CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2	2-0	4-1	5	6	W
12/07	Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
08/07	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-1	9	8	D
04/07	Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
27/06	Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D	0-1	1-1	13	9	D
24/06	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-2	8	4	L
20/06	Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D	0-1	1-1	9	8	D
17/06	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	3-2	6	5	W
10/06	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	4-0	6-0	10	4	W

Nacao

LLLWDDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	2-2	6	1	D
15/07	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
12/07	Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
05/07	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
02/07	CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	0-0	3	9	D
21/06	Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
18/06	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
07/06	Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	1-2	7	8	L
03/06	Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-3	0-6	1	4	L
28/05	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-2	1-4	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blumenau EC vs Nacao?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Blumenau EC win (77%). Probabilities: Blumenau EC 77%, draw 15%, Nacao 9%.

How many goals are expected in Blumenau EC vs Nacao?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Blumenau EC 2.61 · Nacao 0.77), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Blumenau EC vs Nacao?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.