Football · Brazil Catarinense 2 · 19/07, 16:00

Prediction: Tubarao vs Hercilio Luz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Tubarao1.06

Hercilio Luz1.52

1X2

25% 28% 47%

Tubarao Draw Hercilio Luz

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tubarao 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWWWLL

Hercilio Luz 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Tubarao 1–3–2 Hercilio Luz (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tubarao 1501 · Hercilio Luz 1608

	Tubarao	Draw	Hercilio Luz
Our model	25%	28%	47%
Market	26%	27%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hercilio Luz (rating 1501 vs 1608).
H2H favours Hercilio Luz: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tubarao	Hercilio Luz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	2.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/75/0%	44/44/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.3	2.5 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.1	6.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.30

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:08 +2’	3.50	3.30	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tubarao 1–3–2 Hercilio Luz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 Brazil Catarinense 2	Hercilio Luz	2-0	Tubarao
24/02/19 Brazil Campeonato Catarinense	Hercilio Luz	1-1 HT 1-1	Tubarao
17/01/19 Brazil Campeonato Catarinense	Tubarao	2-2 HT 1-0	Hercilio Luz
11/11/18 Brazil Matches	Hercilio Luz	1-1 HT 0-1	Tubarao
04/11/18 Brazil Matches	Tubarao	0-1 HT 0-1	Hercilio Luz
25/02/18 Brazil Campeonato Catarinense	Tubarao	1-0 HT 1-0	Hercilio Luz

Standings · Brazil Catarinense 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hercilio Luz	15	11	2	2	31	9	35
2	CA Metropolitano	16	10	2	4	31	18	32
3	Caravaggio SC	15	9	3	3	42	17	30
4	Blumenau EC	15	8	3	4	31	12	27
5	Tubarao	15	6	5	4	22	15	23
6	Fluminense SC	15	5	3	7	14	18	18
7	Nacao	15	4	5	6	14	22	17
8	Guarani de Palhoca	15	4	4	7	14	23	16
9	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul	15	4	2	9	13	21	14
10	SC Jaragua	16	0	1	15	6	63	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tubarao	Hercilio Luz
Caravaggio SC	1-2 L	2-2 D
CA Metropolitano	2-3 L	3-0 W
Nacao	1-0 W	2-1 W
SC Jaragua	3-0 W	2-0 W
Juventus Jaragua Do Sul	2-0 W	1-0 W
Blumenau EC	2-3 L	2-0 W
Guarani de Palhoca	2-2 D	2-1 W
Fluminense SC	1-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	7 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hercilio Luz (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tubarao

DLWDLWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-2	8	6	L
12/07	CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	2-3	11	4	L
05/07	Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
01/07	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	–	3-0	–	–	W
21/06	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
17/06	Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	2-3	7	5	L
07/06	Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
31/05	Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
28/05	Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2	–	0-2	–	–	L
24/05	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	2-2	4	8	D

Hercilio Luz

WWDWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
12/07	Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	2-0	0	8	W
04/07	Guarani de Palhoca Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
28/06	Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	4-2	6	6	W
21/06	CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	3-0	4	11	W
14/06	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
07/06	Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	2-1	8	8	W
31/05	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	2-2	5	11	D
28/05	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	–	2-0	–	–	W
24/05	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-0	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tubarao vs Hercilio Luz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hercilio Luz win (47%). Probabilities: Tubarao 25%, draw 28%, Hercilio Luz 47%.

How many goals are expected in Tubarao vs Hercilio Luz?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Tubarao 1.06 · Hercilio Luz 1.52), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tubarao vs Hercilio Luz?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.