Football · Brazil Catarinense 2 · 19/07, 20:00

Prediction: Guarani de Palhoca vs Blumenau EC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Guarani de Palhoca0.96

Blumenau EC1.65

1X2

21% 27% 52%

Guarani de Palhoca Draw Blumenau EC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Guarani de Palhoca 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLDWLLD

Blumenau EC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDLDDDLW

Head-to-head

Guarani de Palhoca 0–1–5 Blumenau EC (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guarani de Palhoca 1493 · Blumenau EC 1510

	Guarani de Palhoca	Draw	Blumenau EC
Our model	21%	27%	52%
Market	21%	26%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Blumenau EC: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guarani de Palhoca	Blumenau EC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	3.3 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	5.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.40

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
19:11 +1’	4.20	3.40	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guarani de Palhoca 0–1–5 Blumenau EC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/05/26 Brazil Catarinense 2	Blumenau EC	2-0 HT 2-0	Guarani de Palhoca
30/06/24 Brazil Catarinense 2	Blumenau EC	2-1 HT 2-0	Guarani de Palhoca
04/06/22 Brazil Catarinense 2	Guarani de Palhoca	1-2 HT 0-2	Blumenau EC
17/07/19 Brazil Catarinense 2	Guarani de Palhoca	0-1 HT 0-0	Blumenau EC
05/06/19 Brazil Catarinense 2	Blumenau EC	2-1 HT 1-0	Guarani de Palhoca
14/07/18 Brazil Catarinense 2	Blumenau EC	2-2 HT 1-1	Guarani de Palhoca

Standings · Brazil Catarinense 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hercilio Luz	15	11	2	2	31	9	35
2	Caravaggio SC	15	9	3	3	42	17	30
3	CA Metropolitano	15	9	2	4	25	17	29
4	Blumenau EC	15	8	3	4	31	12	27
5	Tubarao	15	6	5	4	22	15	23
6	Fluminense SC	15	5	3	7	14	18	18
7	Nacao	15	4	5	6	14	22	17
8	Guarani de Palhoca	15	4	4	7	14	23	16
9	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul	15	4	2	9	13	21	14
10	SC Jaragua	15	0	1	14	5	57	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guarani de Palhoca	Blumenau EC
Fluminense SC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Juventus Jaragua Do Sul	0-1 L	1-1 D
Hercilio Luz	1-2 L	0-2 L
Caravaggio SC	3-2 W	1-2 L
CA Metropolitano	1-3 L	4-1 W
Tubarao	2-2 D	3-2 W
SC Jaragua	3-1 W	6-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Blumenau EC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Guarani de Palhoca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-1	9	9	D
12/07	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
04/07	Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	1-2	2	6	L
28/06	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	2-0	3-2	5	9	W
21/06	Nacao Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
14/06	CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
07/06	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
03/06	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
27/05	Blumenau EC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-2	0-2	0	0	L
23/05	Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2	–	1-0	–	–	W

Blumenau EC

LWWDLDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	CA Metropolitano Brazil Catarinense 2	2-0	4-1	5	6	W
12/07	Hercilio Luz Brazil Catarinense 2	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
08/07	Juventus Jaragua Do Sul Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-1	9	8	D
04/07	Fluminense SC Brazil Catarinense 2	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
27/06	Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D	0-1	1-1	13	9	D
24/06	Caravaggio SC Brazil Catarinense 2	0-0	1-2	8	4	L
20/06	Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D	0-1	1-1	9	8	D
17/06	Tubarao Brazil Catarinense 2	1-1	3-2	6	5	W
10/06	SC Jaragua Brazil Catarinense 2	4-0	6-0	10	4	W
07/06	Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D	0-0	0-1	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guarani de Palhoca vs Blumenau EC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Blumenau EC win (52%). Probabilities: Guarani de Palhoca 21%, draw 27%, Blumenau EC 52%.

How many goals are expected in Guarani de Palhoca vs Blumenau EC?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Guarani de Palhoca 0.96 · Blumenau EC 1.65), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Guarani de Palhoca vs Blumenau EC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.