Football · Wales Championship North · 24/10, 15:30

Prediction: Buckley Town vs Holyhead Hotspur

Team pages: Buckley Town · Holyhead Hotspur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.97Total

Buckley Town2.28

Holyhead Hotspur1.69

1X2

50% 22% 28%

Buckley Town Draw Holyhead Hotspur

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Buckley Town 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWDWDW

Holyhead Hotspur 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLLLWD

Head-to-head

Buckley Town 1–3–2 Holyhead Hotspur (6 last)

Holyhead Hotspur5-1Buckley Town
Buckley Town5-5Holyhead Hotspur
Buckley Town4-0Holyhead Hotspur
Buckley Town2-2Holyhead Hotspur
Holyhead Hotspur2-0Buckley Town
Buckley Town2-2Holyhead Hotspur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Buckley Town 1545 · Holyhead Hotspur 1492

	Buckley Town	Draw	Holyhead Hotspur
Our model	50%	21%	28%
Market	50%	22%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Buckley Town (rating 1545 vs 1492).
H2H favours Holyhead Hotspur: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Buckley Town	Holyhead Hotspur
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.7	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.2	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.10

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +46’	1.80	4.10	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Buckley Town 1–3–2 Holyhead Hotspur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Wales Championship North	Holyhead Hotspur	5-1 HT 4-1	Buckley Town
12/09/25 Wales Championship North	Buckley Town	5-5 HT 0-2	Holyhead Hotspur
18/07/25 Wales League Cup	Buckley Town	4-0 HT 2-0	Holyhead Hotspur
10/04/23 Wales Championship North	Buckley Town	2-2 HT 1-1	Holyhead Hotspur
20/08/22 Wales Championship North	Holyhead Hotspur	2-0	Buckley Town
09/04/22 Wales Championship North	Buckley Town	2-2	Holyhead Hotspur

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	11	9	0	2	26	10	27
2	Mold Alexandra	11	7	2	2	28	13	23
3	Newtown	10	7	2	1	18	3	23
4	Porthmadog	11	7	2	2	18	11	23
5	Bala Town	11	6	1	4	22	20	19
6	Caersws	10	5	3	2	22	15	18
7	Bangor 1876 FC	11	5	2	4	23	18	17
8	Guilsfield	11	4	4	3	16	14	16
9	Buckley Town	11	4	3	4	25	19	15
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	10	4	1	5	17	24	13
11	Rhyl	10	2	4	4	18	20	10
12	Denbigh Town	11	3	1	7	20	23	10
13	Ruthin Town FC	11	2	3	6	10	21	9
14	Holyhead Hotspur	10	2	2	6	12	19	8
15	Gresford Ath	10	2	1	7	6	22	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	0	1	10	5	34	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Buckley Town	Holyhead Hotspur
Ruthin Town FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Bangor 1876 FC	6-2 W	2-3 L
Caersws	0-2 L	1-1 D
Guilsfield	3-1 W	0-2 L
Mold Alexandra	0-1 L	0-1 L
Porthmadog	1-1 D	2-2 D
CPD Llanuwchllyn	1-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Buckley Town (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Buckley Town

LDLWLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Bala Town Wales Championship North	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
03/10	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
25/09	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	3-2	6-2	8	4	W
12/09	Rhyl Wales Championship North	2-2	3-3	8	2	D
05/09	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
31/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
28/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
21/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
15/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	9	0	D
08/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	5	1	L

Holyhead Hotspur

WLLLDLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Caersws Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
02/10	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-2	4-2	4	4	W
26/09	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
05/09	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	2-1	2-3	3	4	L
15/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
08/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
31/07	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-0	2-1	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Buckley Town vs Holyhead Hotspur?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Buckley Town win (50%). Probabilities: Buckley Town 50%, draw 22%, Holyhead Hotspur 28%.

How many goals are expected in Buckley Town vs Holyhead Hotspur?

The model expects 3.97 goals (Buckley Town 2.28 · Holyhead Hotspur 1.69), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Buckley Town vs Holyhead Hotspur?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.