Football · Wales Championship North · 31/10, 20:45

Prediction: Newtown vs Buckley Town

Team pages: Newtown · Buckley Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Newtown2.06

Buckley Town0.96

1X2

62% 21% 16%

Newtown Draw Buckley Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Newtown 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWLWDD

Buckley Town 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLWDWDWL

Head-to-head

Newtown 1–1–3 Buckley Town (5 last)

Newtown0-2Buckley Town
Buckley Town3-0Newtown
Buckley Town2-3Newtown
Buckley Town1-1Newtown
Buckley Town3-2Newtown

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newtown 1571 · Buckley Town 1542

	Newtown	Draw	Buckley Town
Our model	62%	22%	16%
Market	63%	20%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Buckley Town: 3-1-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newtown	Buckley Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.5	2.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/80/0%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.8	2.2 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	2.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.48▲	Bet365 1.48
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.25 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
18:53 +2’	1.42	4.50	5.25
01:47 +5’	1.48▲	4.50	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newtown 1–1–3 Buckley Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Wales Championship North	Newtown	0-2 HT 0-2	Buckley Town
03/10/25 Wales Championship North	Buckley Town	3-0 HT 1-0	Newtown
02/08/25 Wales League Cup	Buckley Town	2-3 HT 0-1	Newtown
13/07/24 UK Friendlies	Buckley Town	1-1 HT 1-0	Newtown
22/07/14 Club Friendly List	Buckley Town	3-2 HT 1-1	Newtown

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	12	10	0	2	27	10	30
2	Newtown	11	7	3	1	20	5	24
3	Mold Alexandra	11	7	2	2	28	13	23
4	Porthmadog	12	7	2	3	18	12	23
5	Bala Town	12	6	2	4	25	23	20
6	Caersws	11	5	4	2	24	17	19
7	Bangor 1876 FC	11	5	2	4	23	18	17
8	Guilsfield	12	4	5	3	18	16	17
9	Buckley Town	12	4	3	5	25	21	15
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	11	4	2	5	20	27	14
11	Rhyl	11	2	5	4	20	22	11
12	Holyhead Hotspur	11	3	2	6	14	19	11
13	Denbigh Town	11	3	1	7	20	23	10
14	Ruthin Town FC	11	2	3	6	10	21	9
15	Gresford Ath	10	2	1	7	6	22	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	0	1	10	5	34	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newtown	Buckley Town
Rhyl	2-2 D	3-3 D
Bangor 1876 FC	0-0 D	6-2 W
Mold Alexandra	2-1 W	0-1 L
Porthmadog	0-1 L	1-1 D
Holyhead Hotspur	1-0 W	0-2 L
Bala Town	1-0 W	3-2 W
Guilsfield	1-1 D	3-1 W
Penrhyncoch	5-0 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Buckley Town (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newtown

WDWWWWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Rhyl Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
10/10	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	8	7	W
26/09	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
05/09	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
31/08	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
15/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
08/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	3-0	5-0	5	0	W

Buckley Town

DLWLWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
09/10	Bala Town Wales Championship North	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
03/10	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
25/09	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	3-2	6-2	8	4	W
12/09	Rhyl Wales Championship North	2-2	3-3	8	2	D
05/09	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
31/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
28/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
21/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
15/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	9	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newtown vs Buckley Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newtown win (62%). Probabilities: Newtown 62%, draw 21%, Buckley Town 16%.

How many goals are expected in Newtown vs Buckley Town?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Newtown 2.06 · Buckley Town 0.96), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newtown vs Buckley Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.