Football · Wales Championship North · 31/10, 15:00
Prediction: Guilsfield vs Porthmadog
Team pages: Guilsfield · Porthmadog
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
Guilsfield1.61
Porthmadog1.25
1X2
Guilsfield
Draw
Porthmadog
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Guilsfield
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Porthmadog
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Guilsfield
6–0
Porthmadog
(6 last)
- Guilsfield4-0Porthmadog
- Porthmadog0-1Guilsfield
- Guilsfield4-0Porthmadog
- Porthmadog1-2Guilsfield
- Guilsfield2-0Porthmadog
- Porthmadog0-2Guilsfield
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Guilsfield 1516 · Porthmadog 1519
| Guilsfield | Draw | Porthmadog | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 46% | 24% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Guilsfield: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Guilsfield | Porthmadog | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4 | 2.7 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0 | 1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Guilsfield 6–0–0 Porthmadog
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/24 Wales Championship North | Guilsfield | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Porthmadog |
| 19/08/23 Wales Championship North | Porthmadog | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Guilsfield |
| 06/12/22 Wales Championship North | Guilsfield | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Porthmadog |
| 26/11/22 Wales Championship North | Porthmadog | 1-2 | Guilsfield |
| 20/11/19 Wales Championship North | Guilsfield | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Porthmadog |
| 13/04/19 Wales Cymru Alliance | Porthmadog | 0-2 | Guilsfield |
Standings · Wales Championship North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 10 | 30 |
| 2 | Newtown | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 5 | 24 |
| 3 | Mold Alexandra | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Porthmadog | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 23 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 23 | 20 |
| 6 | Caersws | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 17 | 19 |
| 7 | Bangor 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 17 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 21 | 15 |
| 10 | CPD Llanuwchllyn | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 27 | 14 |
| 11 | Rhyl | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 22 | 11 |
| 12 | Holyhead Hotspur | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 11 |
| 13 | Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 10 |
| 14 | Ruthin Town FC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 9 |
| 15 | Gresford Ath | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Guilsfield | Porthmadog |
|---|---|---|
| Caersws | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Denbigh Town | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Holyhead Hotspur | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Gresford Ath | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Brickfield Rangers | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Buckley Town | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Ruthin Town FC | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Newtown | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 3 L | 4 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Porthmadog (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Guilsfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Caersws Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 10/10 | Denbigh Town Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/10 | CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 26/09 | Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/09 | Gresford Ath Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 05/09 | Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 31/08 | Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/08 | Buckley Town Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/08 | Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | Newtown Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
Porthmadog
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 10/10 | Gresford Ath Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/10 | Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/09 | Newtown Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/09 | Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/09 | Bala Town Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 31/08 | Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 28/08 | Caersws Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 21/08 | Denbigh Town Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | Buckley Town Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Guilsfield vs Porthmadog?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Guilsfield win (45%). Probabilities: Guilsfield 45%, draw 25%, Porthmadog 29%.
How many goals are expected in Guilsfield vs Porthmadog?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Guilsfield 1.61 · Porthmadog 1.25), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Guilsfield vs Porthmadog?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.