Football · Wales Championship North · 31/10, 15:00

Prediction: CPD Llanuwchllyn vs Denbigh Town

Team pages: CPD Llanuwchllyn · Denbigh Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

CPD Llanuwchllyn1.88

Denbigh Town1.86

1X2

39% 23% 38%

CPD Llanuwchllyn Draw Denbigh Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

CPD Llanuwchllyn 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDLLWD

Denbigh Town 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLWLLW

Head-to-head

CPD Llanuwchllyn 0–2 Denbigh Town (2 last)

Denbigh Town7-1CPD Llanuwchllyn
CPD Llanuwchllyn2-4Denbigh Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CPD Llanuwchllyn 1474 · Denbigh Town 1450

	CPD Llanuwchllyn	Draw	Denbigh Town
Our model	39%	23%	38%
Market	39%	23%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Denbigh Town: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CPD Llanuwchllyn	Denbigh Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.2	1.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.90

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +14’	2.30	3.90	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CPD Llanuwchllyn 0–0–2 Denbigh Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/12/24 Wales Cup	Denbigh Town	7-1 HT 4-0	CPD Llanuwchllyn
14/08/21 Wales Cup	CPD Llanuwchllyn	2-4 HT 1-1	Denbigh Town

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	12	10	0	2	27	10	30
2	Newtown	11	7	3	1	20	5	24
3	Mold Alexandra	11	7	2	2	28	13	23
4	Porthmadog	12	7	2	3	18	12	23
5	Bala Town	12	6	2	4	25	23	20
6	Caersws	11	5	4	2	24	17	19
7	Bangor 1876 FC	11	5	2	4	23	18	17
8	Guilsfield	12	4	5	3	18	16	17
9	Buckley Town	12	4	3	5	25	21	15
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	11	4	2	5	20	27	14
11	Rhyl	11	2	5	4	20	22	11
12	Holyhead Hotspur	11	3	2	6	14	19	11
13	Denbigh Town	11	3	1	7	20	23	10
14	Ruthin Town FC	11	2	3	6	10	21	9
15	Gresford Ath	10	2	1	7	6	22	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	0	1	10	5	34	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CPD Llanuwchllyn	Denbigh Town
Bala Town	3-3 D	5-2 W
Penrhyncoch	4-1 W	2-2 D
Guilsfield	0-1 L	2-0 W
Holyhead Hotspur	4-0 W	2-4 L
Newtown	0-4 L	0-1 L
Bangor 1876 FC	0-5 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Denbigh Town (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CPD Llanuwchllyn

WLLWWDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Bala Town Wales Championship North	1-2	3-3	–	–	D
10/10	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
03/10	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
26/09	Caersws Wales Championship North	2-2	2-5	–	–	L
12/09	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	1	4	D
05/09	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
31/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
28/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
15/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-3	0-5	–	–	L
08/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	4	1	W

Denbigh Town

LLLDLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/10	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	2-1	2-4	3	4	L
26/09	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	1-0	5-2	4	2	W
05/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
31/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
28/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	2-3	7	1	L
14/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
08/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CPD Llanuwchllyn vs Denbigh Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CPD Llanuwchllyn win (39%). Probabilities: CPD Llanuwchllyn 39%, draw 23%, Denbigh Town 38%.

How many goals are expected in CPD Llanuwchllyn vs Denbigh Town?

The model expects 3.75 goals (CPD Llanuwchllyn 1.88 · Denbigh Town 1.86), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CPD Llanuwchllyn vs Denbigh Town?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.