Football · Wales Championship North · 31/10, 15:00

Prediction: Holyhead Hotspur vs Penrhyncoch

Team pages: Holyhead Hotspur · Penrhyncoch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Holyhead Hotspur2.07

Penrhyncoch1.11

1X2

59% 21% 19%

Holyhead Hotspur Draw Penrhyncoch

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Holyhead Hotspur 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLLWDW

Penrhyncoch 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Holyhead Hotspur 1–3–2 Penrhyncoch (6 last)

Penrhyncoch1-0Holyhead Hotspur
Holyhead Hotspur1-1Penrhyncoch
Holyhead Hotspur1-1Penrhyncoch
Penrhyncoch2-1Holyhead Hotspur
Penrhyncoch0-1Holyhead Hotspur
Holyhead Hotspur1-1Penrhyncoch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Holyhead Hotspur 1489 · Penrhyncoch 1388

	Holyhead Hotspur	Draw	Penrhyncoch
Our model	59%	23%	19%
Market	60%	20%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Holyhead Hotspur (rating 1489 vs 1388).
H2H favours Penrhyncoch: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Holyhead Hotspur	Penrhyncoch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	0.4 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	1.5 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:18 +8’	1.50	4.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Holyhead Hotspur 1–3–2 Penrhyncoch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Wales Championship North	Penrhyncoch	1-0 HT 0-0	Holyhead Hotspur
06/09/25 Wales Championship North	Holyhead Hotspur	1-1 HT 0-1	Penrhyncoch
04/03/23 Wales Championship North	Holyhead Hotspur	1-1	Penrhyncoch
28/01/23 Wales Championship North	Penrhyncoch	2-1	Holyhead Hotspur
12/03/22 Wales Championship North	Penrhyncoch	0-1	Holyhead Hotspur
02/10/21 Wales Championship North	Holyhead Hotspur	1-1	Penrhyncoch

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	12	10	0	2	27	10	30
2	Newtown	11	7	3	1	20	5	24
3	Mold Alexandra	11	7	2	2	28	13	23
4	Porthmadog	12	7	2	3	18	12	23
5	Bala Town	12	6	2	4	25	23	20
6	Caersws	11	5	4	2	24	17	19
7	Bangor 1876 FC	11	5	2	4	23	18	17
8	Guilsfield	12	4	5	3	18	16	17
9	Buckley Town	12	4	3	5	25	21	15
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	11	4	2	5	20	27	14
11	Rhyl	11	2	5	4	20	22	11
12	Holyhead Hotspur	11	3	2	6	14	19	11
13	Denbigh Town	11	3	1	7	20	23	10
14	Ruthin Town FC	11	2	3	6	10	21	9
15	Gresford Ath	10	2	1	7	6	22	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	0	1	10	5	34	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Holyhead Hotspur	Penrhyncoch
Buckley Town	2-0 W	0-5 L
Denbigh Town	4-2 W	2-2 D
Guilsfield	0-2 L	0-4 L
Newtown	0-1 L	0-5 L
CPD Llanuwchllyn	0-4 L	1-4 L
Bangor 1876 FC	2-3 L	1-5 L
Brickfield Rangers	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	0 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Holyhead Hotspur (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Holyhead Hotspur

LLLDLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
10/10	Caersws Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
02/10	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-2	4-2	4	4	W
26/09	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
05/09	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	2-1	2-3	3	4	L
15/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
08/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	4	5	L

Penrhyncoch

LLDLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
03/10	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
25/09	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
15/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-4	1-5	–	–	L
05/09	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
31/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
28/08	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
08/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-3	0-5	1	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Holyhead Hotspur vs Penrhyncoch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Holyhead Hotspur win (59%). Probabilities: Holyhead Hotspur 59%, draw 21%, Penrhyncoch 19%.

How many goals are expected in Holyhead Hotspur vs Penrhyncoch?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Holyhead Hotspur 2.07 · Penrhyncoch 1.11), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Holyhead Hotspur vs Penrhyncoch?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.