Football · Wales Championship North · 24/10, 15:30

Prediction: Caersws vs Guilsfield

Team pages: Caersws · Guilsfield

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Caersws1.63

Guilsfield1.54

1X2

40% 25% 36%

Caersws Draw Guilsfield

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Caersws 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWLWDD

Guilsfield 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLWLDWWL

Head-to-head

Caersws 2–2–2 Guilsfield (6 last)

Guilsfield4-1Caersws
Caersws0-0Guilsfield
Caersws5-3Guilsfield
Guilsfield1-2Caersws
Guilsfield2-2Caersws
Caersws2-3Guilsfield

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caersws 1521 · Guilsfield 1524

	Caersws	Draw	Guilsfield
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	40%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caersws	Guilsfield
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.75

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:58 +20’	2.25	3.75	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caersws 2–2–2 Guilsfield

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Wales Championship North	Guilsfield	4-1 HT 3-1	Caersws
25/10/25 Wales Championship North	Caersws	0-0 HT 0-0	Guilsfield
05/10/24 Wales Championship North	Caersws	5-3 HT 2-1	Guilsfield
27/07/24 Wales Championship North	Guilsfield	1-2 HT 1-1	Caersws
19/03/24 Wales Championship North	Guilsfield	2-2 HT 1-0	Caersws
28/10/23 Wales Championship North	Caersws	2-3 HT 1-0	Guilsfield

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	11	9	0	2	26	10	27
2	Mold Alexandra	11	7	2	2	28	13	23
3	Newtown	10	7	2	1	18	3	23
4	Porthmadog	11	7	2	2	18	11	23
5	Bala Town	11	6	1	4	22	20	19
6	Caersws	10	5	3	2	22	15	18
7	Bangor 1876 FC	11	5	2	4	23	18	17
8	Guilsfield	11	4	4	3	16	14	16
9	Buckley Town	11	4	3	4	25	19	15
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	10	4	1	5	17	24	13
11	Rhyl	10	2	4	4	18	20	10
12	Denbigh Town	11	3	1	7	20	23	10
13	Ruthin Town FC	11	2	3	6	10	21	9
14	Holyhead Hotspur	10	2	2	6	12	19	8
15	Gresford Ath	10	2	1	7	6	22	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	0	1	10	5	34	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caersws	Guilsfield
Holyhead Hotspur	1-1 D	2-0 W
CPD Llanuwchllyn	5-2 W	1-0 W
Brickfield Rangers	0-2 L	0-2 L
Ruthin Town FC	3-0 W	2-2 D
Buckley Town	2-0 W	1-3 L
Gresford Ath	1-0 W	1-1 D
Mold Alexandra	2-2 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Caersws (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caersws

DWLWWWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Bala Town Wales Championship North	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
26/09	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	2-2	5-2	–	–	W
12/09	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
04/09	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
31/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
28/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	1-0	3-1	6	2	W
15/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-2	2-4	–	–	L
08/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
01/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-0	2-2	6	3	D

Guilsfield

WDDLWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
03/10	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
26/09	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
31/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
28/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
15/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
08/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-1	3-2	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caersws vs Guilsfield?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caersws win (40%). Probabilities: Caersws 40%, draw 25%, Guilsfield 36%.

How many goals are expected in Caersws vs Guilsfield?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Caersws 1.63 · Guilsfield 1.54), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Caersws vs Guilsfield?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.