Football · Wales Championship North · 24/10, 15:30

Prediction: CPD Llanuwchllyn vs Bala Town

Team pages: Bala Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.02Total

CPD Llanuwchllyn1.69

Bala Town2.32

1X2

27% 22% 51%

CPD Llanuwchllyn Draw Bala Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

CPD Llanuwchllyn 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWDLLW

Bala Town 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWLDL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CPD Llanuwchllyn 1470 · Bala Town 1483

	CPD Llanuwchllyn	Draw	Bala Town
Our model	27%	21%	51%
Market	27%	22%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 4.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CPD Llanuwchllyn	Bala Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.4	2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4	0.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.30

X4.10

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +21’	3.30	4.10	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	11	9	0	2	26	10	27
2	Mold Alexandra	11	7	2	2	28	13	23
3	Newtown	10	7	2	1	18	3	23
4	Porthmadog	11	7	2	2	18	11	23
5	Bala Town	11	6	1	4	22	20	19
6	Caersws	10	5	3	2	22	15	18
7	Bangor 1876 FC	11	5	2	4	23	18	17
8	Guilsfield	11	4	4	3	16	14	16
9	Buckley Town	11	4	3	4	25	19	15
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	10	4	1	5	17	24	13
11	Rhyl	10	2	4	4	18	20	10
12	Denbigh Town	11	3	1	7	20	23	10
13	Ruthin Town FC	11	2	3	6	10	21	9
14	Holyhead Hotspur	10	2	2	6	12	19	8
15	Gresford Ath	10	2	1	7	6	22	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	0	1	10	5	34	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CPD Llanuwchllyn	Bala Town
Penrhyncoch	4-1 W	1-0 W
Caersws	2-5 L	3-3 D
Mold Alexandra	2-2 D	2-4 L
Gresford Ath	2-0 W	3-0 W
Newtown	0-4 L	0-1 L
Buckley Town	2-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CPD Llanuwchllyn

LWLLWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
03/10	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
26/09	Caersws Wales Championship North	2-2	2-5	–	–	L
12/09	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	1	4	D
05/09	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
31/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
28/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
15/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-3	0-5	–	–	L
08/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
01/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-2	1-5	2	1	L

Bala Town

WWWLWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
03/10	Caersws Wales Championship North	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
26/09	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-1	2-4	–	–	L
15/09	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/09	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-1	2-5	3	2	L
05/09	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
31/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
21/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
07/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CPD Llanuwchllyn vs Bala Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bala Town win (51%). Probabilities: CPD Llanuwchllyn 27%, draw 22%, Bala Town 51%.

How many goals are expected in CPD Llanuwchllyn vs Bala Town?

The model expects 4.02 goals (CPD Llanuwchllyn 1.69 · Bala Town 2.32), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CPD Llanuwchllyn vs Bala Town?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.