Football · Wales Championship North · 24/10, 15:30

Prediction: Porthmadog vs Brickfield Rangers

Team pages: Porthmadog · Brickfield Rangers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Porthmadog1.37

Brickfield Rangers1.31

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Porthmadog Draw Brickfield Rangers

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Porthmadog 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDLWWWW

Brickfield Rangers 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWWWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Porthmadog 1532 · Brickfield Rangers 1594

	Porthmadog	Draw	Brickfield Rangers
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	39%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brickfield Rangers (rating 1532 vs 1594).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Porthmadog	Brickfield Rangers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	2.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	1.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.70

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +14’	2.30	3.70	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	11	9	0	2	26	10	27
2	Mold Alexandra	11	7	2	2	28	13	23
3	Newtown	10	7	2	1	18	3	23
4	Porthmadog	11	7	2	2	18	11	23
5	Bala Town	11	6	1	4	22	20	19
6	Caersws	10	5	3	2	22	15	18
7	Bangor 1876 FC	11	5	2	4	23	18	17
8	Guilsfield	11	4	4	3	16	14	16
9	Buckley Town	11	4	3	4	25	19	15
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	10	4	1	5	17	24	13
11	Rhyl	10	2	4	4	18	20	10
12	Denbigh Town	11	3	1	7	20	23	10
13	Ruthin Town FC	11	2	3	6	10	21	9
14	Holyhead Hotspur	10	2	2	6	12	19	8
15	Gresford Ath	10	2	1	7	6	22	7
16	Penrhyncoch	11	0	1	10	5	34	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Porthmadog	Brickfield Rangers
Gresford Ath	1-0 W	5-0 W
Bangor 1876 FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Ruthin Town FC	3-0 W	2-0 W
Holyhead Hotspur	2-2 D	2-1 W
Caersws	1-3 L	2-0 W
Denbigh Town	3-2 W	2-0 W
Rhyl	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Brickfield Rangers (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Porthmadog

WDWLDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
26/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
05/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
31/08	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
28/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-1	1-3	10	2	L
21/08	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-0	3-2	1	1	W
15/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	1-0	1-1	5	0	D
08/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	5	1	W

Brickfield Rangers

WWWLWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
03/10	Rhyl Wales Championship North	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
26/09	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
05/09	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
31/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
28/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
22/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
16/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	1-0	5-0	8	4	W
08/08	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Porthmadog vs Brickfield Rangers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Porthmadog win (38%). Probabilities: Porthmadog 38%, draw 26%, Brickfield Rangers 36%.

How many goals are expected in Porthmadog vs Brickfield Rangers?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Porthmadog 1.37 · Brickfield Rangers 1.31), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Porthmadog vs Brickfield Rangers?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.