Football · Wales Championship North · 24/10, 15:30
Prediction: Rhyl vs Newtown
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.16Total
Rhyl1.33
Newtown1.83
1X2
Rhyl
Draw
Newtown
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Rhyl
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Newtown
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Rhyl
1–5
Newtown
(6 last)
- Newtown6-1Rhyl
- Rhyl2-5Newtown
- Newtown4-1Rhyl
- Newtown1-2Rhyl
- Rhyl0-2Newtown
- Newtown3-2Rhyl
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rhyl 1457 · Newtown 1594
| Rhyl | Draw | Newtown | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Market | 28% | 24% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newtown (rating 1457 vs 1594).
- H2H favours Newtown: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Rhyl | Newtown | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2 | 1.8 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.8 | 2.2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rhyl 1–0–5 Newtown
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/26 Wales Championship North | Newtown | 6-1 HT 3-0 | Rhyl |
| 13/09/25 Wales Championship North | Rhyl | 2-5 HT 0-2 | Newtown |
| 25/01/20 Wales Cup | Newtown | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Rhyl |
| 08/12/18 Wales Cup | Newtown | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Rhyl |
| 26/03/17 Wales Premier League | Rhyl | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Newtown |
| 11/02/17 Wales Premier League | Newtown | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Rhyl |
Standings · Wales Championship North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 10 | 27 |
| 2 | Mold Alexandra | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 23 |
| 3 | Newtown | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 23 |
| 4 | Porthmadog | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 23 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 19 |
| 6 | Caersws | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 18 |
| 7 | Bangor 1876 FC | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 17 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 16 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 15 |
| 10 | CPD Llanuwchllyn | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 24 | 13 |
| 11 | Rhyl | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 20 | 10 |
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 23 | 10 |
| 13 | Ruthin Town FC | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 9 |
| 14 | Holyhead Hotspur | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 8 |
| 15 | Gresford Ath | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Rhyl | Newtown |
|---|---|---|
| Gresford Ath | 1-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Bangor 1876 FC | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Denbigh Town | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Bala Town | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Porthmadog | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Guilsfield | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Newtown (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rhyl
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 03/10 | Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 26/09 | Gresford Ath Wales Championship North |
0-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 12/09 | Buckley Town Wales Championship North |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 05/09 | Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 31/08 | Denbigh Town Wales Championship North |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/08 | Bala Town Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Caersws Wales Championship North |
2-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | Porthmadog Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Guilsfield Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
Newtown
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 03/10 | Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 26/09 | Porthmadog Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 12/09 | Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Denbigh Town Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/08 | Bala Town Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/08 | CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Guilsfield Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 02/08 | Gresford Ath Wales Championship North |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rhyl vs Newtown?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Newtown win (49%). Probabilities: Rhyl 27%, draw 24%, Newtown 49%.
How many goals are expected in Rhyl vs Newtown?
The model expects 3.16 goals (Rhyl 1.33 · Newtown 1.83), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Rhyl vs Newtown?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.