Football · Wales Championship North · 09/10, 20:45

Prediction: Bala Town vs Buckley Town

Team pages: Buckley Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.97Total

Bala Town2.61

Buckley Town1.36

1X2

63% 19% 17%

Bala Town Draw Buckley Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Bala Town 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Buckley Town 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bala Town 1526 · Buckley Town 1520

	Bala Town	Draw	Buckley Town
Our model	64%	19%	18%
Market	63%	20%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bala Town	Buckley Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	2.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4	1.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:49 +5’	1.42	4.50	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	9	0	1	26	6	27
2	Newtown	9	7	1	1	18	3	22
3	Mold Alexandra	10	6	2	2	24	13	20
4	Porthmadog	10	6	2	2	17	11	20
5	Bala Town	10	6	1	3	20	17	19
6	Caersws	9	5	2	2	21	14	17
7	Bangor 1876 FC	10	5	1	4	23	18	16
8	Guilsfield	10	4	4	2	16	12	16
9	Buckley Town	10	3	3	4	22	17	12
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	9	3	1	5	13	23	10
11	Rhyl	9	2	3	4	17	19	9
12	Ruthin Town FC	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
13	Denbigh Town	10	2	1	7	18	23	7
14	Holyhead Hotspur	9	2	1	6	11	18	7
15	Gresford Ath	9	2	1	6	6	21	7
16	Penrhyncoch	10	0	1	9	4	30	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bala Town	Buckley Town
Caersws	3-3 D	0-2 L
Mold Alexandra	2-4 L	0-1 L
Penrhyncoch	1-0 W	5-0 W
Denbigh Town	2-5 L	2-4 L
Porthmadog	2-1 W	1-1 D
Rhyl	3-1 W	3-3 D
Ruthin Town FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Bangor 1876 FC	2-1 W	6-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bala Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Caersws Wales Championship North	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
26/09	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-1	2-4	–	–	L
15/09	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
11/09	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-1	2-5	3	2	L
05/09	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
31/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
21/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
07/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
31/07	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	5	5	W

Buckley Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
25/09	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	3-2	6-2	8	4	W
12/09	Rhyl Wales Championship North	2-2	3-3	8	2	D
05/09	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
31/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
28/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
21/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
15/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	9	0	D
08/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	5	1	L
01/08	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-3	2-4	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bala Town vs Buckley Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bala Town win (63%). Probabilities: Bala Town 63%, draw 19%, Buckley Town 17%.

How many goals are expected in Bala Town vs Buckley Town?

The model expects 3.97 goals (Bala Town 2.61 · Buckley Town 1.36), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bala Town vs Buckley Town?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.