Football · Wales Championship North · 10/10, 15:30

Prediction: Guilsfield vs Denbigh Town

Team pages: Guilsfield · Denbigh Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Guilsfield2.31

Denbigh Town1.42

1X2

57% 21% 22%

Guilsfield Draw Denbigh Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Guilsfield 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDLWLDWW

Denbigh Town 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLLWLL

Head-to-head

Guilsfield 3–1–2 Denbigh Town (6 last)

Denbigh Town3-2Guilsfield
Guilsfield2-1Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town3-2Guilsfield
Guilsfield4-3Denbigh Town
Guilsfield4-1Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town2-2Guilsfield

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guilsfield 1545 · Denbigh Town 1445

	Guilsfield	Draw	Denbigh Town
Our model	57%	21%	22%
Market	57%	21%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guilsfield (rating 1545 vs 1445).
H2H favours Guilsfield: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guilsfield	Denbigh Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	1.8 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.4	2.8 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.20

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +4’	1.57	4.20	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guilsfield 3–1–2 Denbigh Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/01/26 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	3-2 HT 3-2	Guilsfield
11/10/25 Wales Championship North	Guilsfield	2-1 HT 1-1	Denbigh Town
18/01/25 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	3-2 HT 2-2	Guilsfield
02/11/24 Wales Championship North	Guilsfield	4-3 HT 2-2	Denbigh Town
23/03/24 Wales Championship North	Guilsfield	4-1 HT 2-0	Denbigh Town
24/02/24 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	2-2 HT 0-1	Guilsfield

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	9	0	1	26	6	27
2	Newtown	9	7	1	1	18	3	22
3	Mold Alexandra	10	6	2	2	24	13	20
4	Porthmadog	10	6	2	2	17	11	20
5	Bala Town	10	6	1	3	20	17	19
6	Caersws	9	5	2	2	21	14	17
7	Bangor 1876 FC	10	5	1	4	23	18	16
8	Guilsfield	10	4	4	2	16	12	16
9	Buckley Town	10	3	3	4	22	17	12
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	9	3	1	5	13	23	10
11	Rhyl	9	2	3	4	17	19	9
12	Ruthin Town FC	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
13	Denbigh Town	10	2	1	7	18	23	7
14	Holyhead Hotspur	9	2	1	6	11	18	7
15	Gresford Ath	9	2	1	6	6	21	7
16	Penrhyncoch	10	0	1	9	4	30	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guilsfield	Denbigh Town
Holyhead Hotspur	2-0 W	2-4 L
Brickfield Rangers	0-2 L	0-2 L
Penrhyncoch	4-0 W	2-2 D
Buckley Town	1-3 L	4-2 W
Ruthin Town FC	2-2 D	1-2 L
Newtown	1-1 D	0-1 L
Rhyl	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Guilsfield (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guilsfield

DWDDLWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
26/09	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
31/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
28/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
15/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
08/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-1	3-2	5	3	W
01/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	0	4	D

Denbigh Town

WLLLDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	2-1	2-4	3	4	L
26/09	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	1-0	5-2	4	2	W
05/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
31/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
28/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	2-3	7	1	L
14/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
08/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
01/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	3-1	4-2	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guilsfield vs Denbigh Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guilsfield win (57%). Probabilities: Guilsfield 57%, draw 21%, Denbigh Town 22%.

How many goals are expected in Guilsfield vs Denbigh Town?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Guilsfield 2.31 · Denbigh Town 1.42), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Guilsfield vs Denbigh Town?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.