Football · Wales Championship North · 10/10, 15:30

Prediction: Holyhead Hotspur vs Caersws

Team pages: Holyhead Hotspur · Caersws

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

Holyhead Hotspur1.71

Caersws1.95

1X2

33% 24% 43%

Holyhead Hotspur Draw Caersws

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Holyhead Hotspur 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDLLLW

Caersws 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWLWD

Head-to-head

Holyhead Hotspur 4–2–0 Caersws (6 last)

Holyhead Hotspur3-2Caersws
Caersws2-2Holyhead Hotspur
Holyhead Hotspur1-1Caersws
Holyhead Hotspur4-1Caersws
Caersws0-3Holyhead Hotspur
Caersws2-4Holyhead Hotspur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Holyhead Hotspur 1477 · Caersws 1539

	Holyhead Hotspur	Draw	Caersws
Our model	34%	23%	43%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caersws (rating 1477 vs 1539).
H2H favours Holyhead Hotspur: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Holyhead Hotspur	Caersws
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	2.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	3.4 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.80

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:45 +2’	2.70	3.80	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Holyhead Hotspur 4–2–0 Caersws

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 Wales Cup	Holyhead Hotspur	3-2 HT 3-0	Caersws
24/01/26 Wales Championship North	Caersws	2-2 HT 0-1	Holyhead Hotspur
27/09/25 Wales Championship North	Holyhead Hotspur	1-1 HT 0-0	Caersws
28/04/18 Wales Cymru Alliance	Holyhead Hotspur	4-1	Caersws
28/10/17 Wales Cymru Alliance	Caersws	0-3	Holyhead Hotspur
15/04/17 Wales Cymru Alliance	Caersws	2-4	Holyhead Hotspur

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	9	0	1	26	6	27
2	Newtown	9	7	1	1	18	3	22
3	Mold Alexandra	10	6	2	2	24	13	20
4	Porthmadog	10	6	2	2	17	11	20
5	Bala Town	10	6	1	3	20	17	19
6	Caersws	9	5	2	2	21	14	17
7	Bangor 1876 FC	10	5	1	4	23	18	16
8	Guilsfield	10	4	4	2	16	12	16
9	Buckley Town	10	3	3	4	22	17	12
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	9	3	1	5	13	23	10
11	Rhyl	9	2	3	4	17	19	9
12	Ruthin Town FC	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
13	Denbigh Town	10	2	1	7	18	23	7
14	Holyhead Hotspur	9	2	1	6	11	18	7
15	Gresford Ath	9	2	1	6	6	21	7
16	Penrhyncoch	10	0	1	9	4	30	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Holyhead Hotspur	Caersws
Denbigh Town	4-2 W	6-0 W
CPD Llanuwchllyn	0-4 L	5-2 W
Porthmadog	2-2 D	3-1 W
Mold Alexandra	0-1 L	2-2 D
Brickfield Rangers	1-2 L	0-2 L
Ruthin Town FC	2-1 W	3-0 W
Buckley Town	5-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Caersws (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Holyhead Hotspur

WWLLLDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-2	4-2	4	4	W
26/09	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
05/09	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	2-1	2-3	3	4	L
15/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
08/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
31/07	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
18/04	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	4-1	5-1	6	2	W

Caersws

WDWLWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Bala Town Wales Championship North	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
26/09	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	2-2	5-2	–	–	W
12/09	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
04/09	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
31/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
28/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	1-0	3-1	6	2	W
15/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-2	2-4	–	–	L
08/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
01/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
18/04	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	3-0	6-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Holyhead Hotspur vs Caersws?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Caersws win (43%). Probabilities: Holyhead Hotspur 33%, draw 24%, Caersws 43%.

How many goals are expected in Holyhead Hotspur vs Caersws?

The model expects 3.66 goals (Holyhead Hotspur 1.71 · Caersws 1.95), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Holyhead Hotspur vs Caersws?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.