Football · Wales Championship North · 10/10, 15:30

Prediction: Gresford Ath vs Porthmadog

Team pages: Gresford Ath

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Gresford Ath1.01

Porthmadog1.81

1X2

21% 23% 56%

Gresford Ath Draw Porthmadog

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Gresford Ath 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Porthmadog 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gresford Ath 4–2 Porthmadog (6 last)

Porthmadog0-1Gresford Ath
Gresford Ath2-3Porthmadog
Gresford Ath3-1Porthmadog
Porthmadog0-1Gresford Ath
Gresford Ath7-1Porthmadog
Porthmadog6-0Gresford Ath

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gresford Ath 1434 · Porthmadog 1546

	Gresford Ath	Draw	Porthmadog
Our model	20%	25%	55%
Market	22%	22%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Porthmadog (rating 1434 vs 1546).
H2H favours Gresford Ath: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gresford Ath	Porthmadog
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.5	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.6 / 2	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	1.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.10

X4.10

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:45 +2’	4.10	4.10	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gresford Ath 4–0–2 Porthmadog

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/03/24 Wales Championship North	Porthmadog	0-1 HT 0-0	Gresford Ath
09/09/23 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	2-3 HT 2-2	Porthmadog
07/04/23 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	3-1 HT 2-0	Porthmadog
02/08/22 Wales Championship North	Porthmadog	0-1 HT 0-0	Gresford Ath
01/02/20 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	7-1	Porthmadog
23/03/19 Wales Cymru Alliance	Porthmadog	6-0	Gresford Ath

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	10	9	0	1	26	6	27
2	Newtown	9	7	1	1	18	3	22
3	Mold Alexandra	10	6	2	2	24	13	20
4	Porthmadog	10	6	2	2	17	11	20
5	Bala Town	10	6	1	3	20	17	19
6	Caersws	9	5	2	2	21	14	17
7	Bangor 1876 FC	10	5	1	4	23	18	16
8	Guilsfield	10	4	4	2	16	12	16
9	Buckley Town	10	3	3	4	22	17	12
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	9	3	1	5	13	23	10
11	Rhyl	9	2	3	4	17	19	9
12	Ruthin Town FC	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
13	Denbigh Town	10	2	1	7	18	23	7
14	Holyhead Hotspur	9	2	1	6	11	18	7
15	Gresford Ath	9	2	1	6	6	21	7
16	Penrhyncoch	10	0	1	9	4	30	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gresford Ath	Porthmadog
Penrhyncoch	1-0 W	3-1 W
Rhyl	3-1 W	1-0 W
Bala Town	0-3 L	1-2 L
Caersws	0-1 L	1-3 L
Newtown	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Porthmadog (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gresford Ath

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
26/09	Rhyl Wales Championship North	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-5	1-5	–	–	L
31/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
21/08	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
16/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-5	1	4	L
08/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
02/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
18/04	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-2	0-4	3	8	L

Porthmadog

WWDWLDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
26/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
05/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
31/08	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
28/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-1	1-3	10	2	L
21/08	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-0	3-2	1	1	W
15/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	1-0	1-1	5	0	D
08/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
01/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-1	3-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gresford Ath vs Porthmadog?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Porthmadog win (56%). Probabilities: Gresford Ath 21%, draw 23%, Porthmadog 56%.

How many goals are expected in Gresford Ath vs Porthmadog?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Gresford Ath 1.01 · Porthmadog 1.81), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gresford Ath vs Porthmadog?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.