Football · Wales Championship North · 02/10, 20:45

Prediction: Denbigh Town vs Holyhead Hotspur

Team pages: Denbigh Town · Holyhead Hotspur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Denbigh Town2.08

Holyhead Hotspur1.43

1X2

52% 23% 26%

Denbigh Town Draw Holyhead Hotspur

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Denbigh Town 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Holyhead Hotspur 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Denbigh Town 3–1–2 Holyhead Hotspur (6 last)

Denbigh Town1-1Holyhead Hotspur
Holyhead Hotspur3-2Denbigh Town
Holyhead Hotspur2-1Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town3-1Holyhead Hotspur
Denbigh Town5-1Holyhead Hotspur
Holyhead Hotspur0-2Denbigh Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Denbigh Town 1450 · Holyhead Hotspur 1471

	Denbigh Town	Draw	Holyhead Hotspur
Our model	52%	23%	25%
Market	52%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Denbigh Town: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Denbigh Town	Holyhead Hotspur
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.5	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	2.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:10 +8’	1.73	4.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Denbigh Town 3–1–2 Holyhead Hotspur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/03/26 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	1-1 HT 1-0	Holyhead Hotspur
01/11/25 Wales Championship North	Holyhead Hotspur	3-2 HT 1-1	Denbigh Town
22/03/19 Wales Cymru Alliance	Holyhead Hotspur	2-1	Denbigh Town
23/11/18 Wales Cymru Alliance	Denbigh Town	3-1 HT 1-1	Holyhead Hotspur
09/03/18 Wales Cymru Alliance	Denbigh Town	5-1 HT 1-0	Holyhead Hotspur
10/11/17 Wales Cymru Alliance	Holyhead Hotspur	0-2 HT 0-2	Denbigh Town

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	9	8	0	1	23	4	24
2	Mold Alexandra	9	6	2	1	23	11	20
3	Newtown	8	6	1	1	16	2	19
4	Bala Town	9	6	0	3	17	14	18
5	Porthmadog	9	5	2	2	16	11	17
6	Caersws	8	5	1	2	18	11	16
7	Bangor 1876 FC	9	5	1	3	23	17	16
8	Guilsfield	9	3	4	2	15	12	13
9	Buckley Town	9	3	2	4	21	16	11
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	8	3	1	4	13	22	10
11	Rhyl	8	2	3	3	15	16	9
12	Denbigh Town	9	2	1	6	16	19	7
13	Ruthin Town FC	9	2	1	6	8	19	7
14	Holyhead Hotspur	8	1	1	6	7	16	4
15	Gresford Ath	8	1	1	6	5	21	4
16	Penrhyncoch	9	0	1	8	4	29	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Denbigh Town	Holyhead Hotspur
Brickfield Rangers	0-2 L	1-2 L
Newtown	0-1 L	0-1 L
Porthmadog	2-3 L	2-2 D
Ruthin Town FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Bangor 1876 FC	1-2 L	2-3 L
Buckley Town	4-2 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Holyhead Hotspur (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Denbigh Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	1-0	5-2	4	2	W
05/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
31/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
28/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	2-3	7	1	L
14/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
08/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
01/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	3-1	4-2	8	3	W
18/04	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-3	0-6	4	4	L

Holyhead Hotspur

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
05/09	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	2-1	2-3	3	4	L
15/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
08/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
31/07	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
18/04	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	4-1	5-1	6	2	W
03/04	Flint Mountain FC Wales Championship North	2-0	2-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Denbigh Town vs Holyhead Hotspur?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Denbigh Town win (52%). Probabilities: Denbigh Town 52%, draw 23%, Holyhead Hotspur 26%.

How many goals are expected in Denbigh Town vs Holyhead Hotspur?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Denbigh Town 2.08 · Holyhead Hotspur 1.43), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Denbigh Town vs Holyhead Hotspur?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.