Football · Wales Championship North · 03/10, 15:30

Prediction: Mold Alexandra vs Newtown

Team pages: Mold Alexandra · Newtown

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Mold Alexandra1.35

Newtown1.66

1X2

31% 25% 44%

Mold Alexandra Draw Newtown

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Mold Alexandra 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWWDW

Newtown 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWWWWL

Head-to-head

Mold Alexandra 1–1 Newtown (2 last)

Newtown1-2Mold Alexandra
Mold Alexandra1-3Newtown

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mold Alexandra 1578 · Newtown 1560

	Mold Alexandra	Draw	Newtown
Our model	30%	26%	44%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mold Alexandra	Newtown
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.2	2 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.70

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:43 +3’	2.88	3.70	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mold Alexandra 1–0–1 Newtown

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Wales Championship North	Newtown	1-2 HT 0-0	Mold Alexandra
08/11/25 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	1-3 HT 0-2	Newtown

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	9	8	0	1	23	4	24
2	Mold Alexandra	9	6	2	1	23	11	20
3	Newtown	8	6	1	1	16	2	19
4	Bala Town	9	6	0	3	17	14	18
5	Porthmadog	9	5	2	2	16	11	17
6	Caersws	8	5	1	2	18	11	16
7	Bangor 1876 FC	9	5	1	3	23	17	16
8	Guilsfield	9	3	4	2	15	12	13
9	Buckley Town	9	3	2	4	21	16	11
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	8	3	1	4	13	22	10
11	Rhyl	8	2	3	3	15	16	9
12	Denbigh Town	9	2	1	6	16	19	7
13	Ruthin Town FC	9	2	1	6	8	19	7
14	Holyhead Hotspur	8	1	1	6	7	16	4
15	Gresford Ath	8	1	1	6	5	21	4
16	Penrhyncoch	9	0	1	8	4	29	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mold Alexandra	Newtown
Bala Town	4-2 W	1-0 W
CPD Llanuwchllyn	2-2 D	4-0 W
Gresford Ath	5-1 W	3-0 W
Ruthin Town FC	4-0 W	3-2 W
Holyhead Hotspur	1-0 W	1-0 W
Guilsfield	2-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mold Alexandra (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mold Alexandra

WDLWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	1-1	4-2	–	–	W
12/09	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	14	4	D
06/09	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	5-1	5-1	–	–	W
31/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
28/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
21/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
15/08	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
08/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
01/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
18/04	Flint Mountain FC Wales Championship North	3-0	3-1	6	2	W

Newtown

LWWWDWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
05/09	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
31/08	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
15/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
08/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	3-0	5-0	5	0	W
02/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
18/04	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-1	3-2	5	1	W
11/04	Llandudno Wales Championship North	0-1	1-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mold Alexandra vs Newtown?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Newtown win (44%). Probabilities: Mold Alexandra 31%, draw 25%, Newtown 44%.

How many goals are expected in Mold Alexandra vs Newtown?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Mold Alexandra 1.35 · Newtown 1.66), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Mold Alexandra vs Newtown?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.