Football · Wales Championship North · 03/10, 15:30

Prediction: Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Ath

Team pages: Penrhyncoch · Gresford Ath

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Penrhyncoch1.79

Gresford Ath1.41

1X2

46% 24% 30%

Penrhyncoch Draw Gresford Ath

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Penrhyncoch 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLLLLL

Gresford Ath 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLDW

Head-to-head

Penrhyncoch 2–1–3 Gresford Ath (6 last)

Penrhyncoch4-1Gresford Ath
Gresford Ath3-2Penrhyncoch
Gresford Ath1-1Penrhyncoch
Penrhyncoch2-4Gresford Ath
Gresford Ath3-2Penrhyncoch
Penrhyncoch1-0Gresford Ath

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Penrhyncoch 1404 · Gresford Ath 1409

	Penrhyncoch	Draw	Gresford Ath
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	46%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gresford Ath: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Penrhyncoch	Gresford Ath
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.9	0.6 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.5 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.6	2.2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.80

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:38 +8’	1.95	3.80	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Penrhyncoch 2–1–3 Gresford Ath

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Wales Championship North	Penrhyncoch	4-1 HT 1-1	Gresford Ath
10/01/26 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	3-2 HT 0-1	Penrhyncoch
26/10/24 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	1-1 HT 0-0	Penrhyncoch
17/08/24 Wales Championship North	Penrhyncoch	2-4 HT 2-3	Gresford Ath
15/04/23 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	3-2	Penrhyncoch
30/07/22 Wales Championship North	Penrhyncoch	1-0	Gresford Ath

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	9	8	0	1	23	4	24
2	Mold Alexandra	9	6	2	1	23	11	20
3	Newtown	8	6	1	1	16	2	19
4	Bala Town	9	6	0	3	17	14	18
5	Porthmadog	9	5	2	2	16	11	17
6	Caersws	8	5	1	2	18	11	16
7	Bangor 1876 FC	9	5	1	3	23	17	16
8	Guilsfield	9	3	4	2	15	12	13
9	Buckley Town	9	3	2	4	21	16	11
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	8	3	1	4	13	22	10
11	Rhyl	8	2	3	3	15	16	9
12	Denbigh Town	9	2	1	6	16	19	7
13	Ruthin Town FC	9	2	1	6	8	19	7
14	Holyhead Hotspur	8	1	1	6	7	16	4
15	Gresford Ath	8	1	1	6	5	21	4
16	Penrhyncoch	9	0	1	8	4	29	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Penrhyncoch	Gresford Ath
Bala Town	0-1 L	0-3 L
Guilsfield	0-4 L	1-1 D
Brickfield Rangers	0-2 L	0-5 L
Newtown	0-5 L	0-3 L
Rhyl	3-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Penrhyncoch (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Penrhyncoch

WLLLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
15/09	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-4	1-5	–	–	L
05/09	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
31/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
28/08	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
08/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-3	0-5	1	0	L
01/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	1-1	1-3	0	2	L
18/04	Rhyl Wales Championship North	1-0	3-0	7	5	W

Gresford Ath

LLLLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Rhyl Wales Championship North	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-5	1-5	–	–	L
31/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
21/08	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
16/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-5	1	4	L
08/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
02/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
18/04	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-2	0-4	3	8	L
11/04	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-1	1-4	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Ath?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Penrhyncoch win (46%). Probabilities: Penrhyncoch 46%, draw 24%, Gresford Ath 30%.

How many goals are expected in Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Ath?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Penrhyncoch 1.79 · Gresford Ath 1.41), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Penrhyncoch vs Gresford Ath?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.