Football · Wales Championship North · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Caersws vs Brickfield Rangers

Team pages: Caersws · Brickfield Rangers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Caersws1.61

Brickfield Rangers1.57

1X2

38% 25% 37%

Caersws Draw Brickfield Rangers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Caersws 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWLWWW

Brickfield Rangers 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Caersws 1–2 Brickfield Rangers (3 last)

Brickfield Rangers3-1Caersws
Caersws2-0Brickfield Rangers
Brickfield Rangers3-1Caersws

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caersws 1542 · Brickfield Rangers 1591

	Caersws	Draw	Brickfield Rangers
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	39%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brickfield Rangers (rating 1542 vs 1591).
H2H favours Brickfield Rangers: 2-0-1.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caersws	Brickfield Rangers
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.5	2.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	1.2 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 5.9	2.7 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.75

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:13 +2’	2.30	3.75	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caersws 1–0–2 Brickfield Rangers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Wales Championship North	Brickfield Rangers	3-1 HT 1-0	Caersws
02/08/25 Wales Championship North	Caersws	2-0 HT 1-0	Brickfield Rangers
16/09/23 Wales Cup	Brickfield Rangers	3-1 HT 0-0	Caersws

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	7	6	0	1	19	4	18
2	Newtown	6	5	1	0	15	1	16
3	Mold Alexandra	7	5	1	1	17	7	16
4	Bala Town	6	5	0	1	12	5	15
5	Bangor 1876 FC	7	4	1	2	16	10	13
6	Caersws	6	4	1	1	13	7	13
7	Porthmadog	7	3	2	2	12	11	11
8	Guilsfield	7	2	3	2	12	11	9
9	CPD Llanuwchllyn	6	3	0	3	9	15	9
10	Rhyl	6	2	2	2	11	10	8
11	Buckley Town	7	2	1	4	12	11	7
12	Denbigh Town	7	1	1	5	11	15	4
13	Holyhead Hotspur	6	1	1	4	7	13	4
14	Ruthin Town FC	7	1	1	5	6	16	4
15	Penrhyncoch	6	0	1	5	3	21	1
16	Gresford Ath	6	0	0	6	1	19	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caersws	Brickfield Rangers
Ruthin Town FC	3-0 W	2-0 W
Buckley Town	2-0 W	6-0 W
Gresford Ath	1-0 W	5-0 W
Mold Alexandra	2-2 D	1-2 L
Guilsfield	1-4 L	2-0 W
Penrhyncoch	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Brickfield Rangers (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caersws

LLWWDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
31/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
28/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	1-0	3-1	6	2	W
15/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-2	2-4	–	–	L
08/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
01/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
18/04	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	3-0	6-0	5	4	W
13/04	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-2	3-2	7	6	W
11/04	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-3	1-4	3	4	L
06/04	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-1	1-2	6	5	L

Brickfield Rangers

WLWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
31/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
28/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
22/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
16/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	1-0	5-0	8	4	W
08/08	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
01/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	2-0	5-1	11	1	W
18/04	Holywell Town Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
11/04	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
03/04	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	4-0	6-0	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caersws vs Brickfield Rangers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Caersws win (38%). Probabilities: Caersws 38%, draw 25%, Brickfield Rangers 37%.

How many goals are expected in Caersws vs Brickfield Rangers?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Caersws 1.61 · Brickfield Rangers 1.57), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Caersws vs Brickfield Rangers?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.