Football · Wales Championship North · 12/09, 16:00
Prediction: Guilsfield vs Gresford Ath
Team pages: Guilsfield · Gresford Ath
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.71Total
Guilsfield2.64
Gresford Ath1.06
1X2
Guilsfield
Draw
Gresford Ath
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Guilsfield
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Gresford Ath
0-0-10 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Guilsfield
3–1–2
Gresford Ath
(6 last)
- Guilsfield4-0Gresford Ath
- Gresford Ath1-3Guilsfield
- Guilsfield4-1Gresford Ath
- Gresford Ath1-0Guilsfield
- Guilsfield0-1Gresford Ath
- Gresford Ath1-1Guilsfield
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Guilsfield 1519 · Gresford Ath 1376
| Guilsfield | Draw | Gresford Ath | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 17% | 12% |
| Market | 71% | 16% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guilsfield (rating 1519 vs 1376).
- H2H favours Guilsfield: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Guilsfield | Gresford Ath | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.6 | 0.2 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.9 | 0.2 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 0/30/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.6 | 1.9 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Guilsfield 3–1–2 Gresford Ath
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Wales Championship North | Guilsfield | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Gresford Ath |
| 26/07/25 Wales Championship North | Gresford Ath | 1-3 HT 1-3 | Guilsfield |
| 08/03/25 Wales Championship North | Guilsfield | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Gresford Ath |
| 13/09/24 Wales Championship North | Gresford Ath | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Guilsfield |
| 01/04/24 Wales Championship North | Guilsfield | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Gresford Ath |
| 06/09/23 Wales Championship North | Gresford Ath | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Guilsfield |
Standings · Wales Championship North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Newtown | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Mold Alexandra | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Bala Town | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Bangor 1876 FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 13 |
| 6 | Caersws | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Porthmadog | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| 9 | CPD Llanuwchllyn | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 9 |
| 10 | Rhyl | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 8 |
| 11 | Buckley Town | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 7 |
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 4 |
| 13 | Holyhead Hotspur | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
| 14 | Ruthin Town FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 4 |
| 15 | Penrhyncoch | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| 16 | Gresford Ath | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Guilsfield | Gresford Ath |
|---|---|---|
| Brickfield Rangers | 0-2 L | 0-5 L |
| Penrhyncoch | 4-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Newtown | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Mold Alexandra | 3-2 W | 1-5 L |
| Rhyl | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Caersws | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Guilsfield (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Guilsfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 31/08 | Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/08 | Buckley Town Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/08 | Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | Newtown Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Rhyl Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Gresford Ath Wales Championship North |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 11/04 | Caersws Wales Championship North |
3-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 06/04 | Llandudno Wales Championship North |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
Gresford Ath
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North |
1-5 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 31/08 | CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/08 | Bala Town Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Caersws Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 02/08 | Newtown Wales Championship North |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Guilsfield Wales Championship North |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 11/04 | Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 07/04 | Rhyl Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 03/04 | Caersws Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Guilsfield vs Gresford Ath?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Guilsfield win (71%). Probabilities: Guilsfield 71%, draw 17%, Gresford Ath 13%.
How many goals are expected in Guilsfield vs Gresford Ath?
The model expects 3.71 goals (Guilsfield 2.64 · Gresford Ath 1.06), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Guilsfield vs Gresford Ath?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.