Football · Wales Championship North · 05/09, 15:30

Prediction: Newtown vs Denbigh Town

Team pages: Newtown · Denbigh Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

Newtown2.44

Denbigh Town1.28

1X2

62% 20% 18%

Newtown Draw Denbigh Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Newtown 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWWDWW

Denbigh Town 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLWLLLDL

Head-to-head

Newtown 2–1 Denbigh Town (3 last)

Denbigh Town1-0Newtown
Newtown4-2Denbigh Town
Newtown3-2Denbigh Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newtown 1529 · Denbigh Town 1442

	Newtown	Draw	Denbigh Town
Our model	62%	20%	18%
Market	62%	20%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newtown (rating 1529 vs 1442).
H2H favours Newtown: 2-0-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newtown	Denbigh Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	1.3 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.8	3.4 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
08:37 +4’	1.44	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newtown 2–0–1 Denbigh Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Wales Championship North	Denbigh Town	1-0 HT 1-0	Newtown
27/09/25 Wales Championship North	Newtown	4-2 HT 3-0	Denbigh Town
16/07/16 Club Friendly List	Newtown	3-2 HT 1-1	Denbigh Town

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	6	5	0	1	17	4	15
2	Newtown	5	4	1	0	14	1	13
3	Mold Alexandra	6	4	1	1	12	6	13
4	Bangor 1876 FC	6	4	0	2	14	8	12
5	Bala Town	5	4	0	1	10	4	12
6	Porthmadog	6	3	2	1	11	9	11
7	Caersws	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
8	Guilsfield	6	2	3	1	12	9	9
9	Rhyl	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	5	2	0	3	5	15	6
11	Holyhead Hotspur	5	1	1	3	7	9	4
12	Denbigh Town	6	1	1	4	11	14	4
13	Buckley Town	6	1	1	4	7	11	4
14	Ruthin Town FC	6	1	1	4	6	13	4
15	Penrhyncoch	5	0	1	4	3	16	1
16	Gresford Ath	5	0	0	5	0	14	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newtown	Denbigh Town
Penrhyncoch	5-0 W	2-2 D
Ruthin Town FC	3-2 W	1-2 L
Holyhead Hotspur	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Newtown (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newtown

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
15/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
08/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	3-0	5-0	5	0	W
02/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
18/04	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-1	3-2	5	1	W
11/04	Llandudno Wales Championship North	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
08/04	Holywell Town Wales Championship North	0-5	0-6	5	3	L
03/04	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
28/03	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	8	4	L

Denbigh Town

LDWLWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
28/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	0-1	2-3	7	1	L
14/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
08/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
01/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	3-1	4-2	8	3	W
18/04	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-3	0-6	4	4	L
03/04	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
31/03	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
27/03	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-2	0-3	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newtown vs Denbigh Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newtown win (62%). Probabilities: Newtown 62%, draw 20%, Denbigh Town 18%.

How many goals are expected in Newtown vs Denbigh Town?

The model expects 3.72 goals (Newtown 2.44 · Denbigh Town 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newtown vs Denbigh Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.