Football · Wales Championship North · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Holyhead Hotspur vs Newtown

Team pages: Holyhead Hotspur · Newtown

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Holyhead Hotspur1.14

Newtown1.92

1X2

22% 23% 55%

Holyhead Hotspur Draw Newtown

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Holyhead Hotspur 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLLLDL

Newtown 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Holyhead Hotspur 1–1 Newtown (2 last)

Holyhead Hotspur2-0Newtown
Newtown1-0Holyhead Hotspur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Holyhead Hotspur 1483 · Newtown 1543

	Holyhead Hotspur	Draw	Newtown
Our model	21%	24%	54%
Market	22%	22%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newtown (rating 1483 vs 1543).
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Holyhead Hotspur	Newtown
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5	2.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.10

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:14 +1’	4.00	4.10	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Holyhead Hotspur 1–0–1 Newtown

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Wales Championship North	Holyhead Hotspur	2-0 HT 1-0	Newtown
25/10/25 Wales Championship North	Newtown	1-0 HT 0-0	Holyhead Hotspur

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	7	6	0	1	19	4	18
2	Newtown	6	5	1	0	15	1	16
3	Mold Alexandra	7	5	1	1	17	7	16
4	Bala Town	6	5	0	1	12	5	15
5	Bangor 1876 FC	7	4	1	2	16	10	13
6	Caersws	6	4	1	1	13	7	13
7	Porthmadog	7	3	2	2	12	11	11
8	Guilsfield	7	2	3	2	12	11	9
9	CPD Llanuwchllyn	6	3	0	3	9	15	9
10	Rhyl	6	2	2	2	11	10	8
11	Buckley Town	7	2	1	4	12	11	7
12	Denbigh Town	7	1	1	5	11	15	4
13	Holyhead Hotspur	6	1	1	4	7	13	4
14	Ruthin Town FC	7	1	1	5	6	16	4
15	Penrhyncoch	6	0	1	5	3	21	1
16	Gresford Ath	6	0	0	6	1	19	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Holyhead Hotspur	Newtown
CPD Llanuwchllyn	0-4 L	4-0 W
Mold Alexandra	0-1 L	1-2 L
Ruthin Town FC	2-1 W	3-2 W
Denbigh Town	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Newtown (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Holyhead Hotspur

WDWWWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
21/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	2-1	2-3	3	4	L
15/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
08/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
31/07	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
18/04	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	4-1	5-1	6	2	W
03/04	Flint Mountain FC Wales Championship North	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
31/03	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
28/03	Newtown Wales Championship North	1-0	2-0	4	4	W

Newtown

LLLWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
31/08	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
15/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
08/08	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	3-0	5-0	5	0	W
02/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
18/04	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	1-1	3-2	5	1	W
11/04	Llandudno Wales Championship North	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
08/04	Holywell Town Wales Championship North	0-5	0-6	5	3	L
03/04	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Holyhead Hotspur vs Newtown?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Newtown win (55%). Probabilities: Holyhead Hotspur 22%, draw 23%, Newtown 55%.

How many goals are expected in Holyhead Hotspur vs Newtown?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Holyhead Hotspur 1.14 · Newtown 1.92), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Holyhead Hotspur vs Newtown?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.