Football · Wales Championship North · 06/09, 15:30

Prediction: Gresford Ath vs Mold Alexandra

Team pages: Gresford Ath · Mold Alexandra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Gresford Ath1.03

Mold Alexandra1.86

1X2

21% 23% 56%

Gresford Ath Draw Mold Alexandra

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Gresford Ath 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

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Mold Alexandra 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gresford Ath 2–1–3 Mold Alexandra (6 last)

Mold Alexandra4-1Gresford Ath
Gresford Ath1-0Mold Alexandra
Mold Alexandra1-3Gresford Ath
Gresford Ath2-2Mold Alexandra
Mold Alexandra1-0Gresford Ath
Gresford Ath1-5Mold Alexandra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gresford Ath 1380 · Mold Alexandra 1569

	Gresford Ath	Draw	Mold Alexandra
Our model	20%	25%	56%
Market	21%	21%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mold Alexandra (rating 1380 vs 1569).
H2H favours Mold Alexandra: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gresford Ath	Mold Alexandra
Goals for / against (FT)	0.2 / 2.9	2.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.9	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.20

X4.20

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:05 +7’	4.20	4.20	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gresford Ath 2–1–3 Mold Alexandra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	4-1 HT 2-0	Gresford Ath
05/09/25 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	1-0 HT 0-0	Mold Alexandra
01/03/25 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	1-3 HT 0-3	Gresford Ath
08/11/24 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	2-2 HT 1-0	Mold Alexandra
23/03/24 Wales Championship North	Mold Alexandra	1-0 HT 0-0	Gresford Ath
17/11/23 Wales Championship North	Gresford Ath	1-5 HT 0-3	Mold Alexandra

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	6	5	0	1	17	4	15
2	Newtown	5	4	1	0	14	1	13
3	Mold Alexandra	6	4	1	1	12	6	13
4	Bangor 1876 FC	6	4	0	2	14	8	12
5	Bala Town	5	4	0	1	10	4	12
6	Porthmadog	6	3	2	1	11	9	11
7	Caersws	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
8	Guilsfield	6	2	3	1	12	9	9
9	Rhyl	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	5	2	0	3	5	15	6
11	Holyhead Hotspur	5	1	1	3	7	9	4
12	Denbigh Town	6	1	1	4	11	14	4
13	Buckley Town	6	1	1	4	7	11	4
14	Ruthin Town FC	6	1	1	4	6	13	4
15	Penrhyncoch	5	0	1	4	3	16	1
16	Gresford Ath	5	0	0	5	0	14	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gresford Ath	Mold Alexandra
Brickfield Rangers	0-5 L	2-1 W
Caersws	0-1 L	2-2 D
Newtown	0-3 L	2-1 W
Guilsfield	0-4 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mold Alexandra (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gresford Ath

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
21/08	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
16/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	0-5	1	4	L
08/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
02/08	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
18/04	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	0-2	0-4	3	8	L
11/04	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-1	1-4	9	4	L
07/04	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
03/04	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
28/03	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-2	1-4	5	3	L

Mold Alexandra

WWWWDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Bangor 1876 FC Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
28/08	Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
21/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
15/08	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
08/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
01/08	Caersws Wales Championship North	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
18/04	Flint Mountain FC Wales Championship North	3-0	3-1	6	2	W
11/04	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
03/04	Newtown Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	2	1	W
28/03	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	2-0	4-1	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gresford Ath vs Mold Alexandra?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mold Alexandra win (56%). Probabilities: Gresford Ath 21%, draw 23%, Mold Alexandra 56%.

How many goals are expected in Gresford Ath vs Mold Alexandra?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Gresford Ath 1.03 · Mold Alexandra 1.86), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gresford Ath vs Mold Alexandra?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.