Football · Wales Championship North · 04/09, 20:45

Prediction: Ruthin Town FC vs Caersws

Team pages: Ruthin Town FC · Caersws

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Ruthin Town FC1.46

Caersws1.89

1X2

29% 24% 47%

Ruthin Town FC Draw Caersws

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Ruthin Town FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWDLL

Caersws 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDWLWW

Head-to-head

Ruthin Town FC 0–1–5 Caersws (6 last)

Ruthin Town FC0-1Caersws
Caersws5-1Ruthin Town FC
Ruthin Town FC1-1Caersws
Caersws2-1Ruthin Town FC
Ruthin Town FC1-2Caersws
Caersws5-1Ruthin Town FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ruthin Town FC 1429 · Caersws 1555

	Ruthin Town FC	Draw	Caersws
Our model	29%	24%	47%
Market	29%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caersws (rating 1429 vs 1555).
H2H favours Caersws: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ruthin Town FC	Caersws
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.2	2.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4	3.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.75

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:50 +46’	3.10	3.75	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ruthin Town FC 0–1–5 Caersws

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 Wales Championship North	Ruthin Town FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Caersws
13/12/25 Wales Championship North	Caersws	5-1 HT 3-0	Ruthin Town FC
28/09/24 Wales Championship North	Ruthin Town FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Caersws
10/08/24 Wales Championship North	Caersws	2-1 HT 2-1	Ruthin Town FC
09/03/24 Wales Championship North	Ruthin Town FC	1-2 HT 0-2	Caersws
26/08/23 Wales Championship North	Caersws	5-1 HT 3-1	Ruthin Town FC

Standings · Wales Championship North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	6	5	0	1	17	4	15
2	Newtown	5	4	1	0	14	1	13
3	Mold Alexandra	6	4	1	1	12	6	13
4	Bangor 1876 FC	6	4	0	2	14	8	12
5	Bala Town	5	4	0	1	10	4	12
6	Porthmadog	6	3	2	1	11	9	11
7	Caersws	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
8	Guilsfield	6	2	3	1	12	9	9
9	Rhyl	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
10	CPD Llanuwchllyn	5	2	0	3	5	15	6
11	Holyhead Hotspur	5	1	1	3	7	9	4
12	Denbigh Town	6	1	1	4	11	14	4
13	Buckley Town	6	1	1	4	7	11	4
14	Ruthin Town FC	6	1	1	4	6	13	4
15	Penrhyncoch	5	0	1	4	3	16	1
16	Gresford Ath	5	0	0	5	0	14	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ruthin Town FC	Caersws
Mold Alexandra	0-4 L	2-2 D
Guilsfield	2-2 D	1-4 L
Denbigh Town	2-1 W	6-0 W
Buckley Town	1-0 W	2-0 W
Gresford Ath	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Caersws (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ruthin Town FC

WWLLLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
28/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
22/08	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
14/08	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
07/08	Bala Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
31/07	Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
18/04	Newtown Wales Championship North	1-1	2-3	2	1	L
03/04	Llandudno Wales Championship North	1-1	2-5	6	0	L
27/03	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
20/03	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	1-1	2-1	3	3	W

Caersws

WLLWWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
28/08	Porthmadog Wales Championship North	1-0	3-1	6	2	W
15/08	Rhyl Wales Championship North	0-2	2-4	–	–	L
08/08	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
01/08	Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
18/04	Denbigh Town Wales Championship North	3-0	6-0	5	4	W
13/04	Buckley Town Wales Championship North	0-2	3-2	7	6	W
11/04	Guilsfield Wales Championship North	1-3	1-4	3	4	L
06/04	Penrhyncoch Wales Championship North	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
03/04	Gresford Ath Wales Championship North	1-0	2-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ruthin Town FC vs Caersws?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Caersws win (47%). Probabilities: Ruthin Town FC 29%, draw 24%, Caersws 47%.

How many goals are expected in Ruthin Town FC vs Caersws?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Ruthin Town FC 1.46 · Caersws 1.89), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ruthin Town FC vs Caersws?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.