Football · Wales Championship North · 05/09, 15:30
Prediction: Buckley Town vs Penrhyncoch
Team pages: Buckley Town · Penrhyncoch
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
Buckley Town1.99
Penrhyncoch1.2
1X2
Buckley Town
Draw
Penrhyncoch
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Buckley Town
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Penrhyncoch
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Buckley Town
2–2–2
Penrhyncoch
(6 last)
- Buckley Town0-2Penrhyncoch
- Penrhyncoch6-0Buckley Town
- Penrhyncoch0-0Buckley Town
- Buckley Town0-0Penrhyncoch
- Buckley Town2-1Penrhyncoch
- Penrhyncoch3-4Buckley Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Buckley Town 1397 · Penrhyncoch 1480
| Buckley Town | Draw | Penrhyncoch | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 24% | 22% |
| Market | 55% | 22% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penrhyncoch (rating 1397 vs 1480).
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Buckley Town | Penrhyncoch | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.6 | 1.2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.3 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4 | 1.9 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Buckley Town 2–2–2 Penrhyncoch
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Wales Championship North | Buckley Town | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Penrhyncoch |
| 29/11/25 Wales Championship North | Penrhyncoch | 6-0 HT 2-0 | Buckley Town |
| 15/02/25 Wales Championship North | Penrhyncoch | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Buckley Town |
| 26/07/24 Wales Championship North | Buckley Town | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Penrhyncoch |
| 04/02/23 Wales Championship North | Buckley Town | 2-1 | Penrhyncoch |
| 05/11/22 Wales Championship North | Penrhyncoch | 3-4 | Buckley Town |
Standings · Wales Championship North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Newtown | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Bangor 1876 FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 12 |
| 5 | Bala Town | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Porthmadog | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| 7 | Caersws | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 9 |
| 9 | Rhyl | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | CPD Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 6 |
| 11 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 4 |
| 12 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 4 |
| 13 | Buckley Town | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 4 |
| 14 | Ruthin Town FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
| 15 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| 16 | Gresford Ath | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Buckley Town | Penrhyncoch |
|---|---|---|
| Caersws | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Guilsfield | 3-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Porthmadog | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Denbigh Town | 2-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Brickfield Rangers | 0-6 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Penrhyncoch (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Buckley Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Caersws Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 28/08 | Guilsfield Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/08 | Mold Alexandra Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Porthmadog Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 0 | D |
| 08/08 | CPD Llanuwchllyn Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Denbigh Town Wales Championship North |
1-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Holyhead Hotspur Wales Championship North |
1-4 | 1-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/04 | Caersws Wales Championship North |
2-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 03/04 | Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North |
0-4 | 0-6 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 27/03 | Ruthin Town FC Wales Championship North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
Penrhyncoch
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Guilsfield Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 28/08 | Denbigh Town Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 22/08 | Brickfield Rangers Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Newtown Wales Championship North |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 01/08 | Porthmadog Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Rhyl Wales Championship North |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Gresford Ath Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/04 | Caersws Wales Championship North |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 03/04 | Denbigh Town Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 28/03 | Holywell Town Wales Championship North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Buckley Town vs Penrhyncoch?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Buckley Town win (55%). Probabilities: Buckley Town 55%, draw 23%, Penrhyncoch 22%.
How many goals are expected in Buckley Town vs Penrhyncoch?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Buckley Town 1.99 · Penrhyncoch 1.2), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Buckley Town vs Penrhyncoch?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.