Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 22/08, 16:30

Prediction: Maritimo vs Academico Viseu

Team pages: Maritimo · Academico Viseu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Maritimo1.5

Academico Viseu1.04

1X2

47% 29% 25%

Maritimo Draw Academico Viseu

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Maritimo 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLLWWW

Academico Viseu 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDWDDWDL

Head-to-head

Maritimo 1–4–1 Academico Viseu (6 last)

Academico Viseu3-1Maritimo
Maritimo2-2Academico Viseu
Maritimo1-1Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu0-2Maritimo
Academico Viseu2-2Maritimo
Maritimo1-1Academico Viseu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maritimo 1525 · Academico Viseu 1515

	Maritimo	Draw	Academico Viseu
Our model	47%	28%	25%
Market	47%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maritimo	Academico Viseu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	1.4 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:48 +1’	2.00	3.25	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maritimo 1–4–1 Academico Viseu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Portugal Segunda Liga	Academico Viseu	3-1 HT 1-0	Maritimo
03/10/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Maritimo	2-2 HT 0-0	Academico Viseu
09/03/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Maritimo	1-1 HT 0-0	Academico Viseu
13/10/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	Academico Viseu	0-2 HT 0-0	Maritimo
19/05/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	Academico Viseu	2-2 HT 1-1	Maritimo
14/01/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	Maritimo	1-1 HT 0-1	Academico Viseu

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arouca	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	FC Porto	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
3	Maritimo	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
4	Nacional	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	Sporting	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
6	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
8	Estrela	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
9	Braga	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Benfica	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
11	Academico Viseu	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
11	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	Alverca	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Estoril	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
16	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
18	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maritimo	Academico Viseu
Chaves	1-3 L	1-0 W
Penafiel	0-1 L	3-4 L
Benfica B	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Academico Viseu (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Maritimo

DWLWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	1	3	W
08/08	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
01/08	Nacional Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/05	Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
09/05	Penafiel Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
01/05	Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga	2-1	3-2	2	8	W
26/04	Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	2-1	2	8	W
18/04	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
12/04	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
04/04	Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	8	6	D

Academico Viseu

LWDDWDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
09/08	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-2	2	6	D
02/08	Chaves Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
01/08	Varzim Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
09/05	Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
02/05	Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
25/04	SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
17/04	Feirense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
11/04	Penafiel Portugal Segunda Liga	1-3	3-4	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maritimo vs Academico Viseu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maritimo win (47%). Probabilities: Maritimo 47%, draw 29%, Academico Viseu 25%.

How many goals are expected in Maritimo vs Academico Viseu?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Maritimo 1.5 · Academico Viseu 1.04), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Academico Viseu?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.