Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 15/08, 16:30
Prediction: Alverca vs Estrela
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
Alverca1.53
Estrela1.16
1X2
Alverca
Draw
Estrela
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Alverca
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Estrela
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alverca
0–2–0
Estrela
(2 last)
- Alverca1-1Estrela
- Estrela2-2Alverca
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alverca | Estrela | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/22/44% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.7 | 1.5 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 5.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alverca 0–2–0 Estrela
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Alverca | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Estrela |
| 25/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estrela | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Alverca |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Estrela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | Sporting | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | FC Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Nacional | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alverca | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Famalicao | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Arouca | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Nacional | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Casa Pia | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Sporting | 1-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Estrela (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alverca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | CD Mafra Europe Friendlies |
– | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 04/04 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 22/03 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
Estrela
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Al-Nassr Riyadh World Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 20/03 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alverca vs Estrela?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alverca win (45%). Probabilities: Alverca 45%, draw 28%, Estrela 28%.
How many goals are expected in Alverca vs Estrela?
The model expects 2.69 goals (Alverca 1.53 · Estrela 1.16), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Estrela?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.