Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 23/08, 19:00

Prediction: Santa Clara vs Famalicao

Team pages: Santa Clara · Famalicao

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

Santa Clara1.02

Famalicao1

1X2

34% 33% 33%

Santa Clara Draw Famalicao

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Santa Clara 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWDWLDW

Famalicao 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDDWDWDL

Head-to-head

Santa Clara 3–3 Famalicao (6 last)

Santa Clara0-1Famalicao
Famalicao3-0Santa Clara
Santa Clara2-1Famalicao
Famalicao1-2Santa Clara
Famalicao0-1Santa Clara
Santa Clara1-3Famalicao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santa Clara 1517 · Famalicao 1529

	Santa Clara	Draw	Famalicao
Our model	34%	33%	33%
Market	35%	32%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santa Clara	Famalicao
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	3.5 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X2.90

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:26

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.93 → 2.53▼	Pinn 2.53
X	2.99 → 3.05▲	Pinn 3.05
2	2.67 → 3.08▲	Pinn 3.08

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:34 +2’	2.93	2.99	2.67
09:25 +1’	2.53▼	3.05▲	3.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Clara 3–0–3 Famalicao

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	0-1 HT 0-0	Famalicao
10/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Famalicao	3-0 HT 2-0	Santa Clara
10/05/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	2-1 HT 1-0	Famalicao
30/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Famalicao	1-2 HT 0-1	Santa Clara
24/11/24 Portugal Cup	Famalicao	0-1 HT 0-0	Santa Clara
19/02/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	1-3 HT 0-0	Famalicao

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arouca	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	FC Porto	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
3	Maritimo	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
4	Benfica	2	1	1	0	9	2	4
5	Nacional	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
6	Sporting	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
7	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
9	Estrela	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
10	Braga	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
11	Academico Viseu	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
11	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	Alverca	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Estoril	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
16	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
17	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santa Clara	Famalicao
Nacional	2-2 D	1-0 W
FC Porto	0-1 L	2-2 D
Braga	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Famalicao (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santa Clara

WLLDWDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
10/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
11/05	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/05	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
26/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
18/04	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
11/04	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
03/04	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	1-3	2-4	5	8	L
21/03	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Famalicao

WWDDDWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
07/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
16/05	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
11/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
26/04	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
19/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	2	7	D
10/04	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	13	11	D
04/04	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-2	3	8	D
21/03	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
14/03	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	11	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santa Clara vs Famalicao?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santa Clara win (34%). Probabilities: Santa Clara 34%, draw 33%, Famalicao 33%.

How many goals are expected in Santa Clara vs Famalicao?

The model expects 2.02 goals (Santa Clara 1.02 · Famalicao 1), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Famalicao?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.