Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 23/08, 16:30

Prediction: Guimaraes vs Nacional

Team pages: Guimaraes · Nacional

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Guimaraes1.54

Nacional0.78

1X2

55% 27% 18%

Guimaraes Draw Nacional

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Guimaraes 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLLLLL

Nacional 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLLWDW

Head-to-head

Guimaraes 3–1–2 Nacional (6 last)

Nacional2-0Guimaraes
Guimaraes2-1Nacional
Nacional1-2Guimaraes
Guimaraes2-2Nacional
Nacional1-0Guimaraes
Guimaraes3-1Nacional

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guimaraes 1475 · Nacional 1495

	Guimaraes	Draw	Nacional
Our model	54%	28%	18%
Market	55%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guimaraes: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guimaraes	Nacional
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.70▼	Pinn 1.72
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.73 ★
2	4.50 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.6% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:13 +4’	1.80	3.50	4.50
16:39 +3’	1.70▼	3.70▲	5.00▲
05:23 +8’	1.70	3.60▼	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:29 +2’	1.69	3.94	4.80
11:49 +38’	1.72▲	3.73▼	4.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guimaraes 3–1–2 Nacional

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Nacional	2-0 HT 0-0	Guimaraes
02/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Guimaraes	2-1 HT 0-0	Nacional
03/05/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Nacional	1-2 HT 0-1	Guimaraes
23/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Guimaraes	2-2 HT 1-1	Nacional
26/04/21 Portugal Primeira Liga	Nacional	1-0 HT 1-0	Guimaraes
21/01/21 Portugal Primeira Liga	Guimaraes	3-1 HT 1-1	Nacional

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arouca	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	FC Porto	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
3	Maritimo	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
4	Benfica	2	1	1	0	9	2	4
5	Nacional	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
6	Sporting	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
7	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
9	Estrela	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
10	Braga	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
11	Academico Viseu	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
11	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	Alverca	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Estoril	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
16	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
17	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guimaraes	Nacional
AVS	1-1 D	1-2 L
Tondela	5-0 W	2-0 W
Benfica	0-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Guimaraes (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guimaraes

LWDWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	2-3	1	8	L
08/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
16/05	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	6	7	L
11/05	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
04/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	1-5	7	3	L
25/04	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	3	8	W
18/04	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
11/04	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
03/04	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	5-0	3	2	W
21/03	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-3	8	1	L

Nacional

LWLWWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
10/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
11/05	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
02/05	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
25/04	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
18/04	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
12/04	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	1	6	L
04/04	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
21/03	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guimaraes vs Nacional?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guimaraes win (55%). Probabilities: Guimaraes 55%, draw 27%, Nacional 18%.

How many goals are expected in Guimaraes vs Nacional?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Guimaraes 1.54 · Nacional 0.78), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guimaraes vs Nacional?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.