Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 22/08, 19:00

Prediction: Estoril vs Rio Ave

Team pages: Estoril · Rio Ave

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Estoril1.46

Rio Ave1.18

1X2

42% 28% 29%

Estoril Draw Rio Ave

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Estoril 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

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Rio Ave 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Estoril 3–2–1 Rio Ave (6 last)

Estoril1-2Rio Ave
Rio Ave0-4Estoril
Estoril2-1Rio Ave
Rio Ave2-2Estoril
Rio Ave1-1Estoril
Estoril2-0Rio Ave

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Estoril: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estoril	Rio Ave
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.4	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.83

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:32

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.01 → 2.01	Pinn 2.01
X	3.57 → 3.57	Pinn 3.57
2	3.65 → 3.65	Pinn 3.65

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:29 +3’	2.01	3.57	3.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estoril 3–2–1 Rio Ave

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estoril	1-2 HT 1-0	Rio Ave
01/11/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	0-4 HT 0-2	Estoril
22/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estoril	2-1 HT 0-0	Rio Ave
21/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	2-2 HT 1-0	Estoril
31/01/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	1-1 HT 0-0	Estoril
20/08/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estoril	2-0 HT 0-0	Rio Ave

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
2	Sporting	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
3	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
4	Arouca	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
4	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
4	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	Estrela	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
8	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
8	Nacional	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
8	Braga	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
8	Benfica	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
12	Estoril	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
12	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
14	Academico Viseu	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
15	Alverca	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
16	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
18	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estoril	Rio Ave
Alverca	1-1 D	1-2 L
FC Porto	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Estoril (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Estoril

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
07/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
31/07	CF Os Belenenses Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
25/07	SCU Torreense Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
16/05	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	1-3	2	5	L
10/05	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
03/05	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
26/04	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
20/04	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
12/04	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-3	1	4	L

Rio Ave

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
09/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
01/08	Tondela Europe Friendlies	0-1	3-1	0	0	W
16/05	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	0	1	D
11/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	1-4	5	7	L
03/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
25/04	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	5	8	L
17/04	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
11/04	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
04/04	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-2	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estoril vs Rio Ave?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Estoril win (42%). Probabilities: Estoril 42%, draw 28%, Rio Ave 29%.

How many goals are expected in Estoril vs Rio Ave?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Estoril 1.46 · Rio Ave 1.18), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Estoril vs Rio Ave?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.