Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 23/08, 21:30

Prediction: FC Porto vs Arouca

Team pages: FC Porto · Arouca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

FC Porto2.22

Arouca0.52

1X2

76% 17% 7%

FC Porto Draw Arouca

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

FC Porto 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWLWWW

Arouca 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDWWWW

Head-to-head

FC Porto 4–1–1 Arouca (6 last)

FC Porto3-1Arouca
Arouca0-4FC Porto
Arouca0-2FC Porto
FC Porto4-0Arouca
Arouca3-2FC Porto
FC Porto1-1Arouca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Porto 1603 · Arouca 1534

	FC Porto	Draw	Arouca
Our model	76%	18%	6%
Market	77%	16%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Porto (rating 1603 vs 1534).
H2H favours FC Porto: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Porto	Arouca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.4	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.75

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.88

2 (+1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:40

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.19 → 1.19	Pinn 1.19
X	7.10 → 7.10	Pinn 7.10
2	13.30 → 13.30	Pinn 13.30

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:40	1.19	7.10	13.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Porto 4–1–1 Arouca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	FC Porto	3-1 HT 1-0	Arouca
29/09/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	0-4 HT 0-1	FC Porto
01/03/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Porto
29/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	FC Porto	4-0 HT 0-0	Arouca
12/02/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	3-2 HT 2-1	FC Porto
03/09/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	FC Porto	1-1 HT 0-0	Arouca

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
2	Arouca	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
3	FC Porto	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Benfica	2	1	1	0	9	2	4
5	Nacional	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
6	Sporting	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
7	Santa Clara	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
9	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
10	Estrela	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
11	Academico Viseu	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
12	Braga	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
13	Famalicao	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Alverca	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
16	Estoril	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
17	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
18	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Porto	Arouca
Alverca	2-0 W	1-2 L
Santa Clara	1-0 W	2-2 D
Estrela	2-1 W	1-0 W
Tondela	2-0 W	3-1 W
Estoril	3-1 W	3-2 W
Braga	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Porto (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Porto

WDWWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
09/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
16/05	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	8	0	W
10/05	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
02/05	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
26/04	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-1	6	6	W
19/04	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	8	9	W
12/04	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	3-1	8	4	W
04/04	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
22/03	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-1	5	9	W

Arouca

WWLWLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	4-0	5	7	W
08/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
16/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
11/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	3-1	2	3	W
02/05	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
24/04	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
19/04	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
12/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
06/04	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	2-2	3-2	3	5	W
21/03	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Porto vs Arouca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Porto win (76%). Probabilities: FC Porto 76%, draw 17%, Arouca 7%.

How many goals are expected in FC Porto vs Arouca?

The model expects 2.73 goals (FC Porto 2.22 · Arouca 0.52), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Arouca?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.