Prediction: Arouca vs Moreirense
Team pages: Arouca · Moreirense
- Moreirense0-1Arouca
- Arouca0-2Moreirense
- Arouca1-0Moreirense
- Moreirense3-1Arouca
- Moreirense1-0Arouca
- Arouca0-1Moreirense
| Arouca | Draw | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arouca (rating 1543 vs 1483).
- H2H favours Moreirense: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arouca | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4 | 1.9 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arouca 2–0–4 Moreirense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Moreirense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Arouca |
| 02/11/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Arouca | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Moreirense |
| 24/01/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Arouca | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Moreirense |
| 18/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Moreirense | 3-1 HT 1-2 | Arouca |
| 17/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Moreirense | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Arouca |
| 27/10/23 Portugal Primeira Liga | Arouca | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Moreirense |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Academico Viseu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Estrela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Sporting | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Alverca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arouca | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Tondela | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Santa Clara | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Estrela | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Braga | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Estoril | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Arouca (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arouca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 22/07 | Famalicao Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 24/04 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 21/03 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Moreirense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/08 | Amarante Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 22/07 | Santa Clara Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 11/05 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-2 | 3-2 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 20/04 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/04 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 11 | D |
| 04/04 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arouca vs Moreirense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Arouca win (45%). Probabilities: Arouca 45%, draw 29%, Moreirense 26%.
How many goals are expected in Arouca vs Moreirense?
The model expects 2.35 goals (Arouca 1.37 · Moreirense 0.98), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Moreirense?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.