Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 16/08, 21:30
Prediction: Famalicao vs Maritimo
Team pages: Famalicao · Maritimo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.99Total
Famalicao1.32
Maritimo0.67
1X2
Famalicao
Draw
Maritimo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Famalicao
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Maritimo
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Famalicao
4–2–0
Maritimo
(6 last)
- Famalicao3-2Maritimo
- Maritimo0-0Famalicao
- Maritimo0-1Famalicao
- Famalicao0-0Maritimo
- Maritimo0-4Famalicao
- Famalicao2-1Maritimo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Famalicao 1518 · Maritimo 1525
| Famalicao | Draw | Maritimo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Famalicao: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Famalicao | Maritimo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/67/22% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.7 | 2.2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0 | 5.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Famalicao 4–2–0 Maritimo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/23 Portugal Primeira Liga | Famalicao | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Maritimo |
| 06/11/22 Portugal Primeira Liga | Maritimo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Famalicao |
| 20/02/22 Portugal Primeira Liga | Maritimo | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Famalicao |
| 18/09/21 Portugal Primeira Liga | Famalicao | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Maritimo |
| 21/03/21 Portugal Primeira Liga | Maritimo | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Famalicao |
| 07/11/20 Portugal Primeira Liga | Famalicao | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Maritimo |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Academico Viseu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Estrela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Sporting | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Alverca | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Famalicao
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 31/07 | Como Elite Club Friendlies |
1-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 28/07 | Crystal Palace Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 25/07 | Tondela Club Friendly List |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/07 | Arouca Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/05 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 10/04 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 11 | D |
Maritimo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Nacional Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Penafiel Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/05 | Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 26/04 | Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 18/04 | SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 12/04 | Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 04/04 | Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 21/03 | UD Oliveirense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Famalicao vs Maritimo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Famalicao win (52%). Probabilities: Famalicao 52%, draw 28%, Maritimo 19%.
How many goals are expected in Famalicao vs Maritimo?
The model expects 1.99 goals (Famalicao 1.32 · Maritimo 0.67), with a 59% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Maritimo?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.