Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 14/08, 21:15
Prediction: Sporting vs Guimaraes
Team pages: Sporting · Guimaraes
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.43Total
Sporting2.28
Guimaraes1.15
1X2
Sporting
Draw
Guimaraes
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sporting
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Guimaraes
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sporting
4–1–1
Guimaraes
(6 last)
- Sporting5-1Guimaraes
- Sporting1-2Guimaraes
- Guimaraes1-4Sporting
- Sporting2-0Guimaraes
- Guimaraes4-4Sporting
- Sporting3-0Guimaraes
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting (rating 1605 vs 1490).
- H2H favours Sporting: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sporting | Guimaraes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.4 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 6.7 | 2.5 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.3 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting 4–1–1 Guimaraes
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Sporting | 5-1 HT 3-0 | Guimaraes |
| 06/01/26 Portugal League Cup | Sporting | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Guimaraes |
| 23/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Guimaraes | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Sporting |
| 17/05/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Sporting | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Guimaraes |
| 03/01/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Guimaraes | 4-4 HT 1-2 | Sporting |
| 21/04/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Sporting | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Guimaraes |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Estrela | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | Sporting | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | FC Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Nacional | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sporting | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Rio Ave | 4-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Tondela | 2-2 D | 5-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Sporting (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sporting
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 31/07 | Nottm Forest Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Monaco Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/07 | Strasbourg Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 7-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 14/07 | Celtic Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | SCU Torreense Portugal Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 20 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 11/05 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
3-0 | 5-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 29/04 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
Guimaraes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Varzim Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 01/08 | Chaves Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 11/05 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 04/05 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-3 | 1-5 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 18/04 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 03/04 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sporting vs Guimaraes?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting win (62%). Probabilities: Sporting 62%, draw 21%, Guimaraes 17%.
How many goals are expected in Sporting vs Guimaraes?
The model expects 3.43 goals (Sporting 2.28 · Guimaraes 1.15), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sporting vs Guimaraes?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.