Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 10/09, 21:15
Prediction: Estrela vs Braga
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.87Total
Estrela1.29
Braga1.58
1X2
Estrela
Draw
Braga
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Estrela
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Braga
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Estrela
0–3–3
Braga
(6 last)
- Braga2-2Estrela
- Estrela3-3Braga
- Estrela0-1Braga
- Braga1-1Estrela
- Braga3-0Estrela
- Estrela2-4Braga
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Braga (rating 1487 vs 1586).
- H2H favours Braga: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Estrela | Braga | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 2.8 | 1.3 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.2 | 5.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrela 0–3–3 Braga
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Estrela |
| 03/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estrela | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Braga |
| 19/01/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estrela | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Braga |
| 11/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Estrela |
| 02/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Braga | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Estrela |
| 28/09/23 Portugal Primeira Liga | Estrela | 2-4 HT 0-1 | Braga |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Sporting | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Braga | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Maritimo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 9 | Estrela | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 10 | Nacional | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 12 | Famalicao | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Guimaraes | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 15 | Academico Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
| 17 | Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Estrela | Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Alverca | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Moreirense | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Arouca | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Braga (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Estrela
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 7 | D |
| 08/08 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
Braga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 23/04 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 12/04 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Estrela vs Braga?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Braga win (43%). Probabilities: Estrela 30%, draw 27%, Braga 43%.
How many goals are expected in Estrela vs Braga?
The model expects 2.87 goals (Estrela 1.29 · Braga 1.58), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Braga?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.