Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 19/09, 21:30

Prediction: Sporting vs Arouca

Team pages: Sporting · Arouca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Sporting2.15

Arouca0.99

1X2

63% 22% 15%

Sporting Draw Arouca

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDWWWW

Arouca 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWLWDL

Head-to-head

Sporting 5–1–0 Arouca (6 last)

Arouca1-2Sporting
Sporting6-0Arouca
Sporting2-2Arouca
Arouca0-3Sporting
Arouca0-3Sporting
Sporting2-1Arouca

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting (rating 1645 vs 1526).
H2H favours Sporting: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting	Arouca
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.4	1.6 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.87

Under 3.251.75

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:53

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.21 → 1.33▲	Pinn 1.33
X	6.88 → 4.46▼	Pinn 4.46
2	10.69 → 10.98▲	Pinn 10.98

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
21:50 +18’	1.21	6.88	10.69
22:40 +13’	1.33▲	4.46▼	10.98▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting 5–1–0 Arouca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	1-2 HT 0-1	Sporting
17/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Sporting	6-0 HT 3-0	Arouca
15/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Sporting	2-2 HT 1-2	Arouca
13/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	0-3 HT 0-1	Sporting
10/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Arouca	0-3 HT 0-1	Sporting
08/10/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Sporting	2-1 HT 1-0	Arouca

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	6	0	0	15	2	18
2	Benfica	6	5	1	0	21	4	16
3	Santa Clara	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
4	Sporting	5	4	1	0	14	5	13
5	Arouca	6	3	1	2	8	5	10
6	Estrela	5	2	3	0	11	9	9
7	Academico Viseu	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
8	Braga	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
9	Gil Vicente	5	2	1	2	4	4	7
10	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	6	8	7
11	Alverca	6	1	2	3	8	11	5
12	Guimaraes	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
13	Nacional	6	1	1	4	7	11	4
14	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	4	12	4
15	Famalicao	5	0	3	2	4	6	3
16	Rio Ave	5	1	0	4	2	11	3
17	Estoril	5	0	2	3	2	7	2
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	1	15	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting	Arouca
Alverca	3-1 W	1-2 L
Guimaraes	3-2 W	1-0 W
Gil Vicente	3-0 W	3-1 W
Tondela	2-2 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting

DDWWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	12	3	W
28/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	4-0	4-0	3	2	W
22/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
14/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-2	5	8	W
08/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	3-0	6	1	W
11/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	2-1	4-1	6	7	W
04/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	5-1	1	3	W
29/04	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	5	5	D
26/04	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	9	4	D

Arouca

LDWWWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
07/09	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
29/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
23/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
16/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	4-0	5	7	W
08/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
16/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
11/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	3-1	2	3	W
02/05	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
24/04	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-2	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting vs Arouca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting win (63%). Probabilities: Sporting 63%, draw 22%, Arouca 15%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting vs Arouca?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Sporting 2.15 · Arouca 0.99), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting vs Arouca?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.