Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 20/09, 19:00

Prediction: Santa Clara vs Braga

Team pages: Santa Clara · Braga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

Santa Clara0.94

Braga1.29

1X2

26% 30% 44%

Santa Clara Draw Braga

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Santa Clara 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWWDWW

Braga 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDDDWWLW

Head-to-head

Santa Clara 1–1–4 Braga (6 last)

Santa Clara2-1Braga
Braga1-0Santa Clara
Braga5-0Santa Clara
Braga1-1Santa Clara
Santa Clara0-2Braga
Braga5-3Santa Clara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santa Clara 1561 · Braga 1577

	Santa Clara	Draw	Braga
Our model	26%	31%	43%
Market	27%	28%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Braga: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santa Clara	Braga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.30

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.05

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.84 ★
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	2.15 → 2.10▼	Pinn 2.15

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 3.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:27 +9’	3.50	3.20	2.15
04:42 +6’	3.70▲	3.20	2.10▼
05:32 +2’	3.50▼	3.30▲	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:14 +42’	3.70	3.21	2.08
23:14 +20’	3.74▲	3.24▲	2.10▲
08:56 +30’	3.77▲	3.25▲	2.09▼
19:59 +173’	3.78▲	3.22▼	2.10▲
21:11 +25’	3.82▲	3.25▲	2.13▲
22:20 +65’	3.84▲	3.20▼	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Clara 1–1–4 Braga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	2-1 HT 0-1	Braga
15/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	1-0 HT 1-0	Santa Clara
29/10/25 Portugal League Cup	Braga	5-0 HT 2-0	Santa Clara
03/05/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	1-1 HT 0-1	Santa Clara
22/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Santa Clara	0-2 HT 0-0	Braga
14/05/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	5-3 HT 3-1	Santa Clara

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	6	0	0	15	2	18
2	Benfica	6	5	1	0	21	4	16
3	Sporting	6	4	2	0	15	6	14
4	Santa Clara	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
5	Arouca	6	3	1	2	8	5	10
6	Estrela	6	2	4	0	14	12	10
7	Braga	5	3	1	1	7	5	10
8	Academico Viseu	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
9	Gil Vicente	5	2	1	2	4	4	7
10	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	7	11	7
11	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	7	13	7
12	Alverca	6	1	2	3	8	11	5
13	Famalicao	6	0	4	2	5	7	4
14	Guimaraes	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
15	Nacional	6	1	1	4	7	11	4
16	Rio Ave	6	1	1	4	5	14	4
17	Estoril	6	0	2	4	2	8	2
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	1	15	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santa Clara

WDWLDWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	2-1	2	8	W
06/09	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	4-0	8	2	W
29/08	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
23/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
15/08	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
10/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	2-2	2-2	4	4	D
16/05	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
11/05	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/05	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
26/04	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-1	4	8	W

Braga

WLDDDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
10/09	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	9	3	L
05/09	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
31/08	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
09/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
16/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
11/05	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	2	5	D
03/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
26/04	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-2	1	8	L
23/04	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santa Clara vs Braga?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Braga win (44%). Probabilities: Santa Clara 26%, draw 30%, Braga 44%.

How many goals are expected in Santa Clara vs Braga?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Santa Clara 0.94 · Braga 1.29), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Braga?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.