Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 19/09, 16:30
Prediction: Nacional vs Famalicao
Team pages: Nacional · Famalicao
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.88Total
Nacional0.9
Famalicao0.99
1X2
Nacional
Draw
Famalicao
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Famalicao
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nacional
2–1–3
Famalicao
(6 last)
- Famalicao1-0Nacional
- Nacional0-1Famalicao
- Nacional2-1Famalicao
- Famalicao0-0Nacional
- Famalicao3-0Nacional
- Nacional2-1Famalicao
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Famalicao (rating 1434 vs 1502).
- H2H favours Famalicao: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional | Famalicao | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.4 | 3.3 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 4.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional 2–1–3 Famalicao
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Famalicao | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Nacional |
| 01/11/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Nacional | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Famalicao |
| 01/03/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Nacional | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Famalicao |
| 29/09/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Famalicao | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nacional |
| 16/05/21 Portugal Primeira Liga | Famalicao | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Nacional |
| 30/01/21 Portugal Primeira Liga | Nacional | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Famalicao |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 18 |
| 2 | Benfica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Sporting | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Arouca | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Estrela | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| 8 | Braga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 | Maritimo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 11 | Alverca | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 5 |
| 12 | Guimaraes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | Nacional | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 4 |
| 14 | Moreirense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 4 |
| 15 | Famalicao | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 3 |
| 17 | Estoril | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nacional | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Estrela | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Estoril | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Santa Clara | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 10/08 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 11/05 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Famalicao
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 07/08 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/05 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 10/04 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 11 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional vs Famalicao?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Famalicao win (35%). Probabilities: Nacional 30%, draw 35%, Famalicao 35%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional vs Famalicao?
The model expects 1.88 goals (Nacional 0.9 · Famalicao 0.99), with a 61% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional vs Famalicao?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.