Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 20/09, 16:30

Prediction: Guimaraes vs Moreirense

Team pages: Guimaraes · Moreirense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

Guimaraes1.75

Moreirense0.7

1X2

61% 25% 13%

Guimaraes Draw Moreirense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Guimaraes 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWLDL

Moreirense 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDDLWLLW

Head-to-head

Guimaraes 3–1–2 Moreirense (6 last)

Guimaraes1-0Moreirense
Moreirense2-0Guimaraes
Moreirense2-2Guimaraes
Guimaraes1-0Moreirense
Guimaraes1-0Moreirense
Moreirense1-0Guimaraes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guimaraes 1465 · Moreirense 1470

	Guimaraes	Draw	Moreirense
Our model	61%	25%	13%
Market	61%	25%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guimaraes: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guimaraes	Moreirense
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.5	1.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.1	1.6 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.75

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 05:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.53▲	Pinn 1.54
X	3.80 → 3.75▼	Pinn 4.27 ★
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.2% Pinnacle margin 4.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +5’	1.50	3.80	7.00
21:56 +1’	1.45▼	3.90▲	8.00▲
16:30 +3’	1.53▲	3.80▼	6.50▼
05:17 +12’	1.53	3.75▼	7.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:34 +23’	1.45	4.48	6.45
22:31 +24’	1.50▲	4.38▼	6.12▼
23:11 +22’	1.50▼	4.43▲	6.15▲
00:19 +12’	1.51▲	4.35▼	6.00▼
07:00 +31’	1.52▲	4.32▼	5.92▼
09:39 +52’	1.52▼	4.34▲	5.95▲
18:13 +196’	1.52▲	4.32▼	5.96▲
22:35 +80’	1.51▼	4.35▲	6.01▲
15:56 +217’	1.52▲	4.26▼	6.04▲
07:27 +11’	1.52	4.27▲	6.04
20:46 +22’	1.54▲	4.27	6.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guimaraes 3–1–2 Moreirense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Guimaraes	1-0 HT 0-0	Moreirense
23/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	2-0 HT 0-0	Guimaraes
30/03/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	2-2 HT 1-1	Guimaraes
03/11/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Guimaraes	1-0 HT 0-0	Moreirense
30/03/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Guimaraes	1-0 HT 0-0	Moreirense
05/11/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Moreirense	1-0 HT 0-0	Guimaraes

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	6	0	0	15	2	18
2	Benfica	6	5	1	0	21	4	16
3	Sporting	6	4	2	0	15	6	14
4	Santa Clara	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
5	Arouca	6	3	1	2	8	5	10
6	Estrela	6	2	4	0	14	12	10
7	Braga	5	3	1	1	7	5	10
8	Academico Viseu	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
9	Gil Vicente	5	2	1	2	4	4	7
10	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	7	11	7
11	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	7	13	7
12	Alverca	6	1	2	3	8	11	5
13	Famalicao	6	0	4	2	5	7	4
14	Guimaraes	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
15	Nacional	6	1	1	4	7	11	4
16	Rio Ave	6	1	1	4	5	14	4
17	Estoril	6	0	2	4	2	8	2
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	1	15	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guimaraes	Moreirense
Casa Pia	0-0 D	1-0 W
Braga	0-1 L	2-2 D
Arouca	0-1 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Moreirense (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guimaraes

WLLLLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-2	8	8	L
06/09	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	17	4	D
31/08	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
23/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
14/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	2-3	1	8	L
08/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
16/05	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	6	7	L
11/05	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
04/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	1-5	7	3	L
25/04	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-0	3	8	W

Moreirense

LWLDDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
09/09	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-4	3	6	L
04/09	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
30/08	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
16/08	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	0-4	3	7	L
09/08	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
16/05	AVS Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
11/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
02/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	3-2	1	8	W
25/04	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	1-4	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guimaraes vs Moreirense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guimaraes win (61%). Probabilities: Guimaraes 61%, draw 25%, Moreirense 13%.

How many goals are expected in Guimaraes vs Moreirense?

The model expects 2.45 goals (Guimaraes 1.75 · Moreirense 0.7), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guimaraes vs Moreirense?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.