Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 20/09, 19:00

Prediction: Estoril vs Casa Pia

Team pages: Estoril · Casa Pia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Estoril1.38

Casa Pia0.69

1X2

53% 28% 19%

Estoril Draw Casa Pia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Estoril 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LLDDLDLLLD

Casa Pia 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLLLDL

Head-to-head

Estoril 2–3–1 Casa Pia (6 last)

Estoril0-0Casa Pia
Casa Pia2-2Estoril
Casa Pia1-3Estoril
Estoril0-2Casa Pia
Casa Pia0-0Estoril
Estoril4-0Casa Pia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estoril 1440 · Casa Pia 1410

	Estoril	Draw	Casa Pia
Our model	52%	30%	18%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Estoril: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estoril	Casa Pia
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.4	0.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.5	1.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 01:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.74
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.85 ★
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.83

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 4.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:20 +16’	1.73	3.60	4.75
05:32 +2’	1.75▲	3.60	4.75
01:29 +3’	1.80▲	3.60	4.50▼
11:30 +27’	1.75▼	3.60	4.75▲
19:47 +7’	1.67▼	3.70▲	5.25▲
01:23 +6’	1.73▲	3.60▼	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:14 +42’	1.77	3.69	4.35
23:13 +21’	1.79▲	3.73▲	4.41▲
19:59 +173’	1.76▼	3.77▲	4.50▲
14:21 +57’	1.80▲	3.69▼	4.41▼
06:07 +80’	1.79▼	3.72▲	4.41
11:30 +27’	1.75▼	3.79▲	4.59▲
18:41 +74’	1.71▼	3.85▲	4.76▲
03:23 +54’	1.72▲	3.83▼	4.74▼
08:51 +132’	1.72	3.80▼	4.75▲
19:04 +152’	1.74▲	3.85▲	4.83▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 4 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Estoril 2–3–1 Casa Pia

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estoril	0-0 HT 0-0	Casa Pia
03/10/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	2-2 HT 2-1	Estoril
29/04/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	1-3 HT 1-1	Estoril
15/12/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estoril	0-2 HT 0-0	Casa Pia
08/04/24 Portugal Primeira Liga	Casa Pia	0-0 HT 0-0	Estoril
10/11/23 Portugal Primeira Liga	Estoril	4-0 HT 2-0	Casa Pia

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	6	0	0	15	2	18
2	Benfica	6	5	1	0	21	4	16
3	Sporting	6	4	2	0	15	6	14
4	Santa Clara	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
5	Arouca	6	3	1	2	8	5	10
6	Estrela	6	2	4	0	14	12	10
7	Braga	5	3	1	1	7	5	10
8	Academico Viseu	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
9	Gil Vicente	5	2	1	2	4	4	7
10	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	7	11	7
11	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	7	13	7
12	Alverca	6	1	2	3	8	11	5
13	Famalicao	6	0	4	2	5	7	4
14	Guimaraes	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
15	Nacional	6	1	1	4	7	11	4
16	Rio Ave	6	1	1	4	5	14	4
17	Estoril	6	0	2	4	2	8	2
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	1	15	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estoril	Casa Pia
Benfica	1-2 L	0-7 L
Rio Ave	0-2 L	1-1 D
Moreirense	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estoril

LLDDLDLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
31/08	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-2	0	1	L
22/08	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
16/08	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
07/08	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
16/05	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-3	1-3	2	5	L
10/05	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
03/05	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
26/04	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
20/04	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	1	2	L

Casa Pia

LLWDLLLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
06/09	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
24/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
17/08	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-7	1	3	L
08/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
16/05	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	9	1	D
11/05	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/05	Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	7	12	L
27/04	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	3	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estoril vs Casa Pia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Estoril win (53%). Probabilities: Estoril 53%, draw 28%, Casa Pia 19%.

How many goals are expected in Estoril vs Casa Pia?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Estoril 1.38 · Casa Pia 0.69), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Estoril vs Casa Pia?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.