Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 19/09, 19:00

Prediction: Alverca vs Rio Ave

Team pages: Alverca · Rio Ave

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Alverca1.61

Rio Ave1.02

1X2

50% 27% 23%

Alverca Draw Rio Ave

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Alverca 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDLDLW

Rio Ave 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLDLLWLLD

Head-to-head

Alverca 1–2–1 Rio Ave (4 last)

Rio Ave1-2Alverca
Alverca1-1Rio Ave
Alverca2-2Rio Ave
Rio Ave1-0Alverca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alverca 1477 · Rio Ave 1443

	Alverca	Draw	Rio Ave
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alverca	Rio Ave
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	0.7 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	2.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.86
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.58
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.22 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:35	1.85	3.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:14 +26’	1.92	3.45	4.15
00:43 +47’	1.88▼	3.49▲	4.24▲
11:40 +61’	1.86▼	3.58▲	4.22▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alverca 1–2–1 Rio Ave

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Rio Ave	1-2 HT 0-2	Alverca
08/11/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Alverca	1-1 HT 0-1	Rio Ave
23/11/24 Portugal Cup	Alverca	2-2 HT 1-0	Rio Ave
24/11/19 Portugal Cup	Rio Ave	1-0 HT 1-0	Alverca

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	6	0	0	15	2	18
2	Benfica	6	5	1	0	21	4	16
3	Sporting	6	4	2	0	15	6	14
4	Santa Clara	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
5	Arouca	6	3	1	2	8	5	10
6	Estrela	6	2	4	0	14	12	10
7	Braga	5	3	1	1	7	5	10
8	Academico Viseu	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
9	Gil Vicente	5	2	1	2	4	4	7
10	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	7	11	7
11	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	7	13	7
12	Alverca	6	1	2	3	8	11	5
13	Famalicao	6	0	4	2	5	7	4
14	Guimaraes	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
15	Nacional	6	1	1	4	7	11	4
16	Rio Ave	6	1	1	4	5	14	4
17	Estoril	6	0	2	4	2	8	2
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	1	15	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alverca	Rio Ave
Santa Clara	1-1 D	0-4 L
Sporting	1-3 L	0-4 L
Estrela	2-2 D	3-3 D
FC Porto	0-2 L	0-2 L
Estoril	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Alverca (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alverca

WLDLLDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-1	0	3	W
05/09	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
29/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
22/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
15/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	2	7	D
09/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	9	4	L
16/05	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
10/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
02/05	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
24/04	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W

Rio Ave

LDLDLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
06/09	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-4	2	2	L
28/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-4	0-4	2	2	L
22/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
15/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
09/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
16/05	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-1	0	1	D
11/05	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	1-2	1-4	5	7	L
03/05	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
25/04	Guimaraes Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-2	5	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alverca vs Rio Ave?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alverca win (50%). Probabilities: Alverca 50%, draw 27%, Rio Ave 23%.

How many goals are expected in Alverca vs Rio Ave?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Alverca 1.61 · Rio Ave 1.02), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alverca vs Rio Ave?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.