Prediction: Moreirense vs Benfica
Team pages: Moreirense · Benfica
- Benfica4-1Moreirense
- Moreirense0-4Benfica
- Benfica3-2Moreirense
- Moreirense1-1Benfica
- Benfica3-0Moreirense
- Moreirense0-0Benfica
| Moreirense | Draw | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 7% | 15% | 78% |
| Market | 6% | 13% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Benfica (rating 1474 vs 1651).
- H2H favours Benfica: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Moreirense | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.7 | 2.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1 | 1.3 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 80/20/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3 | 4.1 / 8.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Moreirense 0–2–4 Benfica
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Moreirense |
| 14/12/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Moreirense | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Benfica |
| 08/02/25 Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica | 3-2 HT 3-1 | Moreirense |
| 30/08/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Moreirense | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Benfica |
| 14/04/24 Portugal Primeira Liga | Benfica | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Moreirense |
| 03/12/23 Portugal Primeira Liga | Moreirense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Benfica |
Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Sporting | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Braga | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Maritimo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 9 | Estrela | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 10 | Academico Viseu | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 11 | Nacional | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| 12 | Guimaraes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Moreirense | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 14 | Famalicao | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 3 |
| 16 | Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
| 17 | Estoril | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 1 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Moreirense | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 1-0 W | 7-0 W |
| Braga | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Estoril | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Benfica (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moreirense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 09/08 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | AVS Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 11/05 | Tondela Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-2 | 3-2 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 20/04 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/04 | Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 11 | D |
Benfica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 31/08 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 17/08 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 7-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Academico Viseu Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga |
3-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Braga Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 15 | 6 | W |
| 06/04 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moreirense vs Benfica?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Benfica win (80%). Probabilities: Moreirense 7%, draw 14%, Benfica 80%.
How many goals are expected in Moreirense vs Benfica?
The model expects 3.61 goals (Moreirense 0.8 · Benfica 2.8), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Benfica?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.