Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 05/09, 19:00

Prediction: Alverca vs Braga

Team pages: Alverca · Braga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Alverca0.95

Braga1.49

1X2

23% 29% 49%

Alverca Draw Braga

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alverca 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLLDLD

Braga 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLDDDD

Head-to-head

Alverca 0–2 Braga (2 last)

Braga5-0Alverca
Alverca0-3Braga

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Braga (rating 1453 vs 1589).
H2H favours Braga: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alverca	Braga
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.1	1.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.86

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:28

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	4.35 → 4.42▲	Pinn 4.42
X	3.58 → 3.62▲	Pinn 3.62
2	1.80 → 1.81▲	Pinn 1.81

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:30 +1’	4.35	3.58	1.80
23:27 +1’	4.42▲	3.62▲	1.81▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alverca 0–0–2 Braga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Braga	5-0 HT 4-0	Alverca
17/08/25 Portugal Primeira Liga	Alverca	0-3 HT 0-3	Braga

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	4	4	0	0	9	0	12
2	Sporting	4	3	1	0	12	5	10
3	Arouca	4	3	0	1	7	3	9
4	Santa Clara	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
5	Gil Vicente	3	2	1	0	3	0	7
6	Maritimo	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
7	Estrela	3	1	2	0	7	6	5
8	Benfica	2	1	1	0	9	2	4
9	Nacional	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
10	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	3	6	4
11	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
12	Rio Ave	4	1	0	3	2	7	3
13	Famalicao	4	0	2	2	2	4	2
14	Academico Viseu	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
14	Alverca	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
16	Braga	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
17	Estoril	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
18	Casa Pia	4	0	0	4	0	11	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alverca	Braga
Santa Clara	1-1 D	1-2 L
Estrela	2-2 D	2-2 D
FC Porto	0-2 L	1-2 L
Famalicao	0-1 L	2-2 D
Estoril	1-1 D	1-1 D
Arouca	2-1 W	1-0 W
Casa Pia	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alverca

WLWLDLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
22/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
15/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	2	7	D
09/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	9	4	L
16/05	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
10/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
02/05	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
24/04	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
18/04	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
12/04	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	3-1	9	0	W

Braga

LWWDWLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
16/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	7	6	D
11/05	Benfica Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	2	5	D
03/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
26/04	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-2	1	8	L
23/04	Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
19/04	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
12/04	Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
04/04	Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
22/03	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-2	3	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alverca vs Braga?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Braga win (49%). Probabilities: Alverca 23%, draw 29%, Braga 49%.

How many goals are expected in Alverca vs Braga?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Alverca 0.95 · Braga 1.49), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alverca vs Braga?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.